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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

WINTER WEATHER WILL LEAD TO TREACHEROUS CONDITIONS

Feb 19, 2019
2 min read

A Winter weather system will approach from the Tennessee valley later today, The National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings from Durham west.


WHAT: This morning we have had some light sleet across the Sandhills that should end later this morning. High pressure will build down the eastern seaboard through tonight providing a source of cold dry air influx into our Piedmont damming region. By later this evening wintery precipitation will start to impact the western areas and the northern areas along the VA line. This is favorable pattern for a winter storm for our state but not the way this storm is coming from; however, it appears the significant precipitation will arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday, after the warming aloft will be well underway. As the precipitation becomes more widespread in the western and northern Piedmont into the foothills and mountains by nightfall or during the evening, the temperatures are expected to fall to around or slightly below 32 in much of the areas. A light accumulation of ice may cause treacherous road conditions especially on elevated surfaces Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning. The best chance of freezing rain will be from i85 west, see the map below. The Raleigh area will see a quick shot of freezing rain or light sleet. East of Raleigh will remain all rain, Even if temperatures are slow to rise above 32 (which it may be 18z or so in the piedmont and foothills ), the freezing rain accrual will become self limiting as warming aloft leads to warmer rain falling to the surface, and the supply of cold dry air into the damming region will have been cut off.


HOW MUCH? Freezing rain accumulation should not be all that much, a light glaze is possible in the pink areas mostly on elevated surfaces. Light blue areas from Greensboro north and west will see a thicker build up of ice, up to a quarter of an inch of ice is possible. Not expecting power outages other than a few isolated.

TIMING:

-Light Sleet this morning from Charlotte to the Sandhills

-Rain showers possible through mid afternoon

-Wintery precip starts across the foothills and mountains early this evening

-Freezing rain and light snow spreads east to about Raleigh 9-10PM

-Raleigh east stays rain

-Freezing rain continues through the overnight hours, into early morning

-Wed AM isolated hazardous conditions possible Durham west


Bottom- Line: A low to moderate impact winter weather event will impact parts of the state this evening into Wednesday AM, watch for icy porches, ice on bridges and elevated areas Wed AM. The winter weather will end by mid-morning and change to a very cold rain for the afternoon and evening. Stay tuned for updates should something change, if you have any questions please message the Facebook page!

 
 
 

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