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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Weather Headlines for the week of Feb 24th into the weekend!

Let's talk about the Weather Headlines for the rest of the week! Wednesday, we will see an increase in clouds, but a SW wind will warm temps into the 50s for most areas, with some spots in the low 60s. It should be a nice day.

Thursday/Friday: Rain chances increase across the state throughout the day becomimg more widespread into Thursday night and Friday, generally up to an inch in spots. Rain is possible Thursday into Friday; it won't rain the whole time, but scattered to numerous showers are likely. The severe weather threat is low to 0.

The Weekend: There is still some uncertainty about when all the rain will clear the state, and given that I've decided to keep a chance of rain around for parts of Eastern and Coastal areas, especially Saturday morning, we will continue to fine-tune this over the next few days. Saturday afternoon and evening, most areas should be clear. Temps on Saturday in the 50s and 60s.

Sunday should be warmer in the 60s for most areas with partly sunny skies, a very nice day expected at this point.

-Ethan

 
 
 

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