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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

WINTER STORM WARNINGS ISSUED ICING TO BE THE MAIN PROBLEM

WINTER STORM UPDATE: Significant icing expected We are now less than 24 hours from the start the high country has already seen a nice dusting of snow this morning. The main threat with this system will be significant ice accrual, if you live from the Triad (Greensboro- Winston Salem area west into the foothills or eastern mountains, today would a great time to prepare for power outages.


Most if not all the impacts from this winter storm will be from Durham and points west, Raleigh and points east will see a cold rain with some mixing in and around Raleigh. Significant accumulation of freezing rain is a real concern, just a thin coating of ice can result in a travel nightmare. Heavier amounts .25+ can damage trees and result in power outages. An ice glaze is likely in areas in the pink on the map below, Charlotte, Durham, Roxboro, Boone, Murphy etc. This should not cause power outages but travel could be tricky Sunday morning before changing to rain.

The real concern of where ice will fall is in the purple, 1/4, 1/2 (.25-.50") of ice accrual. Areas impacted are all of Piedmont, Triad (Greensboro, Winston Salem) Hickory, and Asheville areas. This is known as a Disruptive ice storm with amounts at or greater of .25" of ice, trees and power lines start to sag and or break. Power outages are definitely a concern, you should be prepared for power outages.




MAP: Below is our second call snowfall map, sorry snow lovers this time around snowfall is going to be very light don't worry we have plenty of winter left.

Gray: (Trace-.50") Here light snow will fall Saturday overnight before changing over to sleet and ice

Light Blue: (1-2") Here expect some snow to fall overnight on Saturday most likely 1-2" of snow, before changing over to sleet and freezing rain. Areas are the Foothills, Yadkin Valley, and into Asheville

Blue: (2-3") The lower elevations mountains below 2,500ft into the foothills, a light to moderate snowfall mixed with sleet is expected. Freezing rain will also mix in at some point on Sunday.

Purple (3-4") The real winners for this snowstorm, a nice snowfall will fall in areas above 3,000ft including the High Country (Boone, Blowing Rock, Elk, Todd areas) some sleet and freezing rain could mix in.

Pink (4+) A very small part of the state above 5,000ft could see upwards of 4-6", that is the ski resorts and high Smokies and Appalachians.





Will be watching the trends among short range models to see where the ice will set up the worse, should things change will notify immediately. Stay tuned for more updates, if you have any questions message or comment on the page. Thanks again for the support and stay safe.

 
 
 

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