Winter Storm/Ice Storm Threat increasing for this weekend.

WINTER STORM/ICE STORM UPDATE 11AM FRIDAY: Good morning, everyone. Our Winter Storm/Ice Storm is knocking on the door. Confidence continues to increase that a significant Winter Storm/Ice Storm is expected across a good portion of the state Saturday evening/night into Monday morning. I’ve been looking at data all morning. To be honest, I was hoping to wake up to better news regarding the freezing rain threat, but the models have not backed off. If anything, the signal for a significant-to-major ice storm has held steady or tightened for parts of the state. I always hope for a "bust" in these scenarios, but my obligation is to give you the reality of the forecast, even when it’s not what we want to hear. I always say prepare for the worst and hope for the best, hope for more sleet to mix in or less moisture than the models have. This is shaping up to be a high-impact event. Hazardous travel is effectively a guarantee, and the potential for power outages is becoming a serious concern where the heaviest ice accrues. It’s not just the ice; it’s the cold that follows.

Gusty winds (Sunday) and bitter cold will rush in Monday night into Tuesday. If you are without power during that drop, hypothermia and frostbite become real risks if you aren't prepared.

What has changed? Well, an Ice Storm Warning has been posted for most of the mountains and foothills. This is because the primary form of moisture will be Sleet or Freezing rain. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued from Orange County North and west through the Piedmont into the Northern Mountains, this is where some snow could mix, especially north, but then again, the primary stuff will be sleet, and Freezing others areas will be upgraded this afternoon. Once all the warnings are out, I’ll post an update to that.

 Timing: The greatest impacts will be Saturday night into Monday for the precipitation, but travel and power outages could extend several days beyond Monday, thanks to extended cold, especially in the red areas on the map below.

 THE MAIN THREAT: FREEZING RAIN (Map 1) Freezing rain remains my primary concern this morning. The data continues to suggest significant ice accrual, and if these trends hold, we are facing a significant impacts in the areas with the highest ice.

-The Significant Ice Likely Zone (0.40" – 0.65”): Where: Stretching from Transylvania County east through Charlotte, up into the Raleigh Metro, and points North and a little east along the I-85 corridor. I bumped up the higher end to .65, there is the potential for a little bit more doesn’t matter regardless significant impacts expected. (HATCHED AREA ON IMAGE 1)The area where I think the highest potential for more than .65” ice accrual is highest is Southern Macon County, parts of Jackson County, mainly south of Sylvia, Transylvania County, Henderson County, and Polk County. These areas have a greater concern for more ice upwards of .75”, crippling ice if that happens.

Power: We are crossing the tipping point here. The weight of this ice is enough to snap lines and break cross-arms on utility poles. You need to expect scattered to numerous power outages. In the hardest-hit spots, prepare for lights to be out for days, not hours.

Trees: Significant limb breakage and tree damage is possible in the highest ice.

Travel: It goes without saying—travel will be a mess. (Note: We are still watching for small shifts in the track that could wobble this zone north or south over the next 24 hours.)

(0.20" – 0.40") I have expanded this to include more of the mountains and high country upon reviewing data, which also extends into parts of Eastern NC, basically along I-95. The higher totals in this section willextend across the Piedmont and mountains. You will see hazardous travel and likely some scattered to even numerous power outages west in the Piedmont and mountains, where some wind is expected too, especially where totals lean toward the higher end of this range

The "Glaze" Zone: A light glaze is possible. While this will certainly cause slick spots and travel impacts, widespread power issues are generally not expected here, though isolated outages are always possible but remain a low threat. This runs along parts of Eastern NC for Sunday morning generally.

Image 3: Some sleet and snow is still possible on top of the freezing rain. A couple of inches of sleet is possible; we want more sleet and less Freezing rain, hopefully that's the trend. The best chance for snow will be early Saturday night as a thump moves through, then changes to mostly sleet and freezing rain. Sleet will accumulate, so the ground will look white, but it’s ice.

Timeline: Expect travel conditions to deteriorate rapidly starting late Saturday. Plan on being off the roads by Saturday evening and likely staying home well into early next week. Long-Lasting Power Outages are possible. Know Your Heat Source: If you lose power, how are you staying warm? If you have a fireplace or wood stove, make sure you have dry wood ready. Never use a gas oven or stove to heat your house; that’s a carbon monoxide risk. Don't raid the grocery stores. There is no reason to panic if we're prepared; we will be just fine.

The Bottom Line: Confidence is high for a significant Winter Storm/Ice Storm across Central and Western NC. To be clear: This will be primarily a sleet and freezing rain event, not a snowstorm, with the heaviest impacts focused from I-95 westward. We are looking at hazardous travel and an increasing risk for power outages. In the hardest-hit areas, numerous to widespread outages simply cannot be ruled out. Conditions will deteriorate Saturday evening through Monday morning, but travel disruptions could last well into next week due to the bitter cold following the storm. Now is the time to finalize preparations for extended travel problems and potential power loss (some long-lasting),and make sure you have a safe emergency heat source ready. Remember, weather forecasting is a science, not a script. We are still monitoring the data closely for any changes in the critical sleet vs. freezing rain ratios. I am personally hoping that drier air eats into some of this moisture over the next 24 hours to bring these ice totals down.

We still have a chance for that. I will be watching the data all day, and post more stuff and thoughts throughout the day. I want this to be wrong just as much as you do. No one wants an ice storm.

-Ethan