Winter Storm/Ice Storm First Call Maps

WINTER STORM UPDATE: Good evening everyone, I've seen enough confidence in the models today and given the system is moving in soon, to release my First Call Freezing Rain, and Snow/Sleet Accumulation maps. I've been looking through the data all day, and I was really hoping for better news regarding the Freezing Rain threat, but models just have not backed off, and looking at some historical data. I really think the potential for a significant to major ice storm is increasing, especially for portions of the state. I wish I had better news. I am hoping for a bust, but it is my obligation as someone who serves the public to tell you how it is. Confidence continues to increase, which will see a significant winter storm that will bring high impacts to a good portion of Central and Western North Carolina, leading to hazardous travel and the potential of power outages where the heaviest ice accrual occurs. Very Cold Weather from gusty winds Monday night into Tuesday could occur, potentially resulting in hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not taken, especially for folks without power.

 Timing: The greatest impacts will be Saturday night into Monday for the precipitation, but travel and power outages could extend several days beyond Monday, thanks to extended cold, especially in the red areas on the map below.

 Freezing Rain: This is my main concern, the ice accrual could be significant if the forecast holds and trends stay together.

On image 1: (0.40-0.60" section this extends from about Transylvania County east through Charlotte and up to the Raleigh Metro and points North. A Significant Ice Storm is expected in this area. This is the tripping point for Freezing Rain Accrual. When we get to this much freezing rain, it stops being a travel issue and becomes an infrastructure issue. Here is what happens: Power: This is the tipping point. Expect scattered to numerous power outages. The ice is heavy enough now to snap lines and break cross-arms on poles. Be prepared for the lights to be out for days in some spots, not hours. Tree damage becomes a concern eps in the higher accumulating areas. Travel becomes a mess. (Small shifts could move this area around over the next 24 hours)

-0.20-0.40 Accrual, icing possible this area will see some icing and could see some scattered power outages in the higher icing, small shifts in the forecsat over the next day or so could put you in higher ice.

-Glaze: A light glaze is possible with some impacts on the roads, but generally only can cause some isolated power outages.

Image 2: Some sleet and snow is still possible on top of the freezing rain a couple inches of sleet is possible, we want more sleet and less Freezing rain hopefully that's the trend.

-So Ethan, what do I do now? I would start making plans for Winter Weather impacts this weekend and prepare for extended travel problems starting late Saturday for most and lasting well into next week. Long-Lasting Power Outages are possible. Know Your Heat Source: If you lose power, how are you staying warm? If you have a fireplace or wood stove, make sure you have dry wood ready. Never use a gas oven or stove to heat your house; that’s a carbon monoxide risk. Don't raid the grocery stores. There is no reason to panic if we're prepared; we will be just fine.

The Bottom Line: Confidence is increasing for a significant winter storm/Ice Storm across Central and Western NC, bringing hazardous travel and the increasing potential for power outages due to significant icing some areas numerous to widespread can't be ruled out. This will be primarily a sleet and freezing rain event not a snowstorm, with the heaviest impacts expected from I-95 westward. Conditions will deteriorate Saturday evening through Monday morning, but travel disruptions could last well into next week due to the bitter cold following the storm. Now is the time to finalize preparations for extended travel problems and potential power loss (some long-lasting), make sure you have a safe emergency heat source ready. Weather Forecast is science and things will still change, we're still watching for changes in the forecast how much sleet/Freezing Rain we see.

-I am hoping for less moisture that'll bring down the Freezing Rain forecast over the next 24 hours, we still have the chance. I'll be watching through the evening and will probably make a reel later this evening. Hang in there guys, I want this to all be wrong too! No one wants an ice storm.

-Ethan