Winter Storm expected this weekend across most of the state, increasing snow potential some heavy at times.

❄️ Winter Storm/Snowstorm Update: Hey everyone, our second Winter Storm in a week is knocking on the doorstep. Accumulating snow is likely across most of the state, with some spots seeing higher amounts of snowfall. I've been looking through the data, and it looks like everyone is still on track to get at least some snow! There will be winners and losers with this snowstorm (well depends on whether you like or hate snow). Uncertainty about how much snow remains is going to fall across the state. This will not be an even storm; there will be folks who get a boom (more snow then expcted) and a bust where there is less snow than expected thanks to the banding (think summertime storms) and dry slotting and nailing down that right now is like throwing a dart into a bulleye over 1,000FT away unfortunately you really can't see that until it starts. So I've taken my over a decade of weather forecasting and training to create the best forecast I think.

📌Here's my second call/ maybe final call snowfall map. Confidence has increased for parts of the state, but I'll explain my thinking below.

⏰: We will be fine pretty much for the rest of today, snow will start falling across the mountains and foothills after sunset (especially after 8/9PM), and then expand to the east into the early morning hours/mid morning Saturday, really gets going during the day Saturday in the East. Snow will be in bands, with pockets of heavier snow and little to nothing. Blowing snow is likely as well, which could reduce visibility in areas with heavier bands.

❄️ SNOW FORECAST: Our upper-level trough from the NW is approaching, and our low along the coast will get going tomorrow; these are key to how much falls for everyone, but it is not a slam dunk with this forecast. There remains considerable uncertainty in the red-hatched area; the potential is high for a boom (higher totals) and a bust (lower totals), with the dry slot potentially setting up. I'll touch more on that shortly.

Orange Area (2-6 Inches) I bumped it up about an inch on the range to account for some spots that'll probably see slightly higher snowfall totals. A good portion of the state will see at least 2-4 inches, with locally higher 4-6 inches in this. Parts of the southern foothills to Charlotte have a higher chance of the higher end of this range. In Central and parts of Coastal NC (Cape Fear area and Crystal Coast/Southern Outer Banks), we will see about 2-6 inches here. Some mixing along the coast and southern Outer Banks could keep you on the lower side, but still thinking at least some snow potential for higher impacts.

Red Hatched Area: This includes most of the Piedmont and Central/Southern Central NC, basically along the I-85 corridor from the VA line to Charlotte. There is a high potential of a bust/boom here, a dry slot is going to setup and a lot of models show it right near the Raleigh area. As a resul,t you could really be on the lower side of snowfall, but the potential is there for a boom. To help you understand models and most data for Raleigh range from a dusting to 12 inches of snow LOL. I can't put that out, and my goal as a meteorologist is to figure out what will happen, so I went with my gut and put you in the 2-6 range for Central NC. So it'll be a nowcast, so be prepared for less/more in this hatched area then you're forecast. Don't throw the apples at me when you get less than you wanted or forecasted; I tried the best here.

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-A dry slot occurs when a wedge of dry, sinking air from the upper atmosphere gets pulled into the storm system as energy transfers from the inland upper-level low to the rapidly strengthening coastal low. This creates a "donut hole" effect on the radar where the dry air essentially evaporates the snowflakes before they can reach the ground, cutting off precipitation even if the storm is raging nearby. It is the main reason why you often see sharp cutoffs in snowfall totals, leaving one county with a "bust" of just a dusting while the next county over gets buried.

Dark Blue (most Eastern/Coastal Plains of NC) 6-9 inches+ this area I bumped up basically North and East from Wilmington to Elizabeth City to the Northern Outer Banks, along and East of I-95, I think moisture will be cracking here, and you'll see a significant snowfall with most areas seeing 5+ inches and some localized areas seeing 9+ inches. Gusty winds of 25-40MPH posisble with 40-65MPH on the Outer Banks blowing snow is likely, especially Saturday PM/overnight.

Mountains (Image 2): Foothills and lower elevations below 3,000 FT will generally receive 2-6 inches of total, with locally higher amounts. Above 3,000 FT and in favored Northwest flow locations, snowfall will likely be 5-9+ inches, with locally higher amounts.

‼️ Hazardous Travel is likely throughout the state on Saturday and Sunday, with impacts lasting into early next week, especially on secondary and less-traveled roads. Prepare for impacts if you must travel; take it easy and slow.

😎The Bottom Line: We are on track for our second winter storm in a week, with snow expanding from the mountains tonight into the rest of the state by Saturday morning. My latest forecast places most of North Carolina in a 2-6 inch range, with the highest potential for significant accumulation (6-9+ inches) shifting to Eastern NC and the Northern Outer Banks/ parts of the mountains. However, the Piedmont (including the I-85 corridor and Raleigh) sits in a high-stakes "bust or boom" zone where a "dry slot" of air could cut off precipitation or allow for heavier bands to set up. Regardless of exact totals, plan for hazardous travel conditions developing Saturday and persisting into early next week. Bitter cold temperatures and gusty winds are likely as well through the weekend.

-This can and probably will change, think we're seeing scattered banding like summertime storms. We're predicting the future, and weather forecasting is far from perfect. There will be people mad and people excited, trust me, I've poured well over 120 hours into weather forecasting over the last 2 weeks. I'll also be real with you and tell you what I think, and will continue to provide updates as things change. It is North Carolina, things always go wrong in weather forecasting, especially in winter lol.

-Ethan