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Potential of another Winter Storm this weekend (January 31st-Feb 1) but not a lock
Winter Storm this weekend, or nah? Good afternoon everyone, it is like Groundhog Day all over again lol. I'll address the elephant in the room. Yes, we have the potential of yet another winter storm this weekend across parts of North Carolina, but no it is not a slam dunk (or complete lock), we're days away and still have several pieces to come together. It is hard to get snow in North Carolina; we all know this. This type of setup allows for very aggressive models, followed by the next run with little to nothing. I am rested, recharged, and ready to help the people of North Carolina with the most reasonable forecast, and I look forward to providing you with the most hype-free, down-to-earth forecasting over the next few days as we figure this all out.
📌WHAT: An upper-level low dropping out of Eastern Canada and a low-pressure system moving east across the Gulf and dropping off the East Coast of the SE will develop. The big question is how does this all comes together. There are many moving parts, and for a nice, good snow in North Carolina, you need to develop them perfectly. You're probably already seeing this is the BIG ONE heavy snow coming to North Carolina, no this is not a lock, and it could very much be dry and cold this weekend for most, if not everyone.
-What we know! It is going to be cold regardless this weekend, so you can plan on it staying cold.
-A storm is going to be somewhere off the Carolina Coast; how close it gets will determine if we see snow across the state or nothing.
-There are lots of moving parts right now, so we're going to see some crazy model runs. It is not impossible for us to get a heavy snow event from this setup, I've seen it, but more likely than not it is either a light snow or nothing. Not saying it can't be a big snow, but haven’t we all learned it is premature to call it now.
-So at this point, we really can't pinpoint anything down other than it seems to be a type of setup where it is either all snow/rain or nothing because the mid levels are very cold with the cold air supply, so it's either falling as all snow or rain right along the area of low pressure. I am back with my favorite scenarios for now, until we can get a clearer picture.
Scenario 1️⃣: The pieces come together pretty well, and a decently strong low-pressure system deepens off the Carolina Coast. We see rain to even some snow across the coast and mostly snow across Central and Eastern North Carolina. This setup would be a big? For how much moisture works west of Charlotte and Greensboro, with the moisture coming from the South and East, this would be a more favored Central and Eastern NC event.
Scenario 2️⃣: The pieces come together more slowly and supressed and the system is mostly just moisture offshore, and nothing happens except it's cold and dry for most this weekend.
Scenario 3️⃣: The low is closer to the coast, and the center moves over parts of Eastern NC. This would be more rain for Eastern NC but snow would be thrown further west across the state.
⏰: The timing, if anything comes, would be Saturday afternoon into Sunday, it appears as of now.
😎The Bottom Line: Yes, there is potential for another winter storm this weekend, specifically Saturday afternoon into Sunday, but it is absolutely not a "lock" yet, as we need several complex pieces to align perfectly. We are looking at a classic "boom or bust" scenario: if the storm tracks close to the coast, we could see a good snow, especially for Central and Eastern NC, but if it stays offshore, the weekend will simply be cold and dry. Please watch out for the hype: People assuming they know with 100% certainty it'll be a big winter storm are crazy. I didn't even want to post about this because of the higher uncertainty, but it's worth mentioning. And those damn apps, please leave them, they'll change yet again, another 100 times. Last time they said big snow, how'd that go? Maybe, the 3rd time is the charm lol
There is nothing you can do right now, no reason to change plans, and I'm sure everyone has enough winter storm supplies to last them until next winter, so no reason to raid the stores. I'll be watching and posting thoughts like normal over the coming day. Regardless of precipitation, we can guarantee it will be cold, so plan for low temperatures either way. I will continue to monitor the trends to see if this system comes together or misses us completely.
"And those damn apps, please leave them, they'll change yet again, another 100 times."
I use Google Weather, and last week it never stopped saying we were getting only snow that weekend, even long after everyone else was in agreement that we weren't getting snow at all. 🤦
I’m to come into RDU late Monday night. My driver has to use back roads. Should I delay my return for two days?
Ethan - you are breath of fresh air. Finally someone who speaks based on data available at a given point in time.
When will we have a better sense of whether this will be a snow event? How far out? I know you say not to change plans but I am worried about traveling to NYC
Either way here in the greater Green Bay Wisconsin area we're used to that kind of weather but no one is used to 20 below weather with a wind chill of-50