top of page

​

Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

North Carolina Holiday Weekend Forecast

Writer: Ethan Clark
Ethan Clark
May 22
2 min read

THE NORTH CAROLINA HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST: First things first, it is not a washout anywhere, don't let those dumb weather app icons force you to cancel your plans. Be flexible and have a backup, but we will be just fine! It is active, and if you have several hours of outdoor plans, you might have to deal with a thunderstorm, especially in inland areas.


Saturday: A couple of isolated showers are possible Saturday morning along the coast and parts of Central and Western NC, then it should be quiet with a break in the activity across the state. On Saturday afternoon and evening, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the state, especially in Central and Western NC. Eastern and Coastal NC, a couple of isolated showers/storms can't be ruled out, but it'll be drier and warmer. Highs across the west will be in the 60s and 70s, and Central and Eastern areas in the 70s and 80s.


Sunday: About the same, a couple of isolated showers in the morning, then quiet, and a few scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the state in a hit or miss fashion. I know the Coca-Cola 600 is on Sunday, but with a 4-hour race, there is the potential for some storm delays, unfortunately. It happens almost every year. Highs warmer statewide in the 70s and 80s.


Monday: Warmer, with lower thunderstorm chances, just a few scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the 70s and 80s.


The Bottom Line: This is a very typical summertime setup. If you're outside all weekend, you'll probably see rain! Summertime convection gives everyone the run for their money in forecasting, and models are notoriously bad with it! They’re usually scattered and totally random, we can see each day as we get closer, where leftover boundaries are etc. to see what will develop. Some folks will get soaked, while a few miles down the road get nothing! You’ll see sunshine at times, you’ll be able to get stuff in, but be ready for passing showers or thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evenings.

 
 
 

Comments

Don't Miss a Forecast

Subscribe to emails so you don't miss a thing!

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Instagram

Thanks for subscribing!

bottom of page