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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

The week ahead turning hot again.

The Weather Headlines across the great state of North Carolina for everyone, don't be caught unaware!

Today is a more active, cooler day with scattered showers, some storms, and widespread clouds. We will begin to see a change in the weather starting Tuesday.


-Tuesday, the cold front breaks down, we will start to see a ridge of high pressure build back, and some sunshine returns to most of the state. Highs will be in the 80s to near 90° for most areas. Storm/rain chances are much lower, but a couple of isolated to scattered showers and storms can't be ruled out, especially south, and some areas to the east seem more favored.


Wednesday-Friday: Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected, the ridge of high pressure really takes over, and the heat is back in full force. Highs in the 90s to near 100° each day for most areas. The high will be well in control of our weather, with sinking air and very limited storm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. Most are dry and hot.

Friday is still hot, with a slightly better chance of some pop-up storms.


The North Carolina Weekend: It looks hot and sunny with highs in the 90s to near 100°. A few hit or miss scattered PM storms look to be around on Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening across the state, no washouts by any means, typical summertime stuff. We will get more details as we move towards the weekend.

As always, I'll keep you updated all week long!

 
 
 

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