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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

The rest of the week into the weekend turning more active

Writer: Ethan Clark
Ethan Clark
May 19
2 min read

⛈️ Let's talk about late week into the Holiday Weekend. I know there is a ton going on, and the weather greatly impacts most events! Here's my thoughts as of now: No, it won't be a washout, and no it won't rain all day, everyday by any means. The weekend itself is looking like a very typical summertime setup across NC!


Wednesday: Another hot day is expected with highs in the 80s and 90s; most stay dry today. However, a couple of showers and thunderstorms can't be ruled out, mainly across Western NC in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday: A front will approach the state, and we will see a couple of isolated showers statewide Thursday morning, but nothing too much. In the afternoon and evening, with the front around and the heating of the day, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, some will be numerous, especially inland into Central and Western NC, lower along the coast until later in the evening, it seems. Highs Thursday in the 70s and 80s for most areas, these storms could have gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Friday: The front hangs around scatterd showers and clouds around Friday morning in hit or miss with some more showers and storms possible statewide on Friday afternoon and evening.

Saturday-Monday: The front is farther north, but thanks to daytime heating, I am expecting daytime heating showers and storms to be hit-or-miss. These are the summer ones, where they mostly occur mid to late afternoon. This is where no one can pinpoint exactly where they're from until they start developing, but we can get a better idea as we get closer. Highs in the 70s and 80s, Saturday a little cooler west. Sunday/Monday warmer in the 70s and 80s.


The Bottom Line: There is no washout. It will be hard right now to pinpoint the storms and who sees how much. There will be winners and losers with rainfall, and I wish we had the technology to tell me if your backyard will be wet at 2PM on Saturday, but we just need to have a backup plan in place. I'll keep you coming with timing and thoughts over the next few days!

-Ethan

 
 
 

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