Mountains

SUNDAY: Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening

CADEN NELSON

Here's my midday update on the storm risk, including the potential for a few strong-to-severe storms this afternoon and evening. It'll be hot and humid today before any storms start to develop, so take it easy. We will have a front moving through the state tonight, which will, dare I say, usher in some slightly cooler air for the beginning of the week.

Ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be have the potential to develop across the state, mainly in clusters/hit or a hit-or-miss setup. They'll be scattered, so not everyone will see them by any means, but there will be some storms around. However, thanks to the combination of heat and humidity (HIGH CAPE VALUES) and some Wind Shear, a couple of strong to severe storms are possible today; the main threat is going to be damaging winds from downbursts. Downbursts (a powerful, localized column of sinking air (a downdraft) within a thunderstorm that plummets to the ground and spreads out in all directions. It can create destructive, straight-line winds)

Severe weather does not impact everyone, and storm coverage today will be very hit-or-miss, but we should keep an eye on it, especially if you have outdoor late-afternoon/evening plans. Severe weather can vary significantly over short distances. To stay safe, ensure you have multiple methods for receiving emergency alerts and a pre-planned, secure location where you can take cover when conditions deteriorate.

I posted some future radar images, but made them small because the future radar models don't do great on days like this, which gives you an idea of the scattered nature. I'll keep you updated!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

The rest of the week into the weekend turning more active

Ethan Clark
May 19
2 min read

⛈️ Let's talk about late week into the Holiday Weekend. I know there is a ton going on, and the weather greatly impacts most events! Here's my thoughts as of now: No, it won't be a washout, and no it won't rain all day, everyday by any means. The weekend itself is looking like a very typical summertime setup across NC!

Wednesday: Another hot day is expected with highs in the 80s and 90s; most stay dry today. However, a couple of showers and thunderstorms can't be ruled out, mainly across Western NC in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday: A front will approach the state, and we will see a couple of isolated showers statewide Thursday morning, but nothing too much. In the afternoon and evening, with the front around and the heating of the day, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, some will be numerous, especially inland into Central and Western NC, lower along the coast until later in the evening, it seems. Highs Thursday in the 70s and 80s for most areas, these storms could have gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Friday: The front hangs around scatterd showers and clouds around Friday morning in hit or miss with some more showers and storms possible statewide on Friday afternoon and evening.

Saturday-Monday: The front is farther north, but thanks to daytime heating, I am expecting daytime heating showers and storms to be hit-or-miss. These are the summer ones, where they mostly occur mid to late afternoon. This is where no one can pinpoint exactly where they're from until they start developing, but we can get a better idea as we get closer. Highs in the 70s and 80s, Saturday a little cooler west. Sunday/Monday warmer in the 70s and 80s.

The Bottom Line: There is no washout. It will be hard right now to pinpoint the storms and who sees how much. There will be winners and losers with rainfall, and I wish we had the technology to tell me if your backyard will be wet at 2PM on Saturday, but we just need to have a backup plan in place. I'll keep you coming with timing and thoughts over the next few days!

-Ethan

Mountains

Mountains

Raleigh area

The rest of the week into the weekend turning more active

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