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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Hot and humid day ahead with showers and storms possible.

Storm Update: Good morning, it is already hot and humid with most areas across the state in the 80s and low 90s this morning. Take it easy outside today! Thanks to the heating of the day, and a front around to spark, we should see some scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly after 3PM into the evening and early overnight hours. These will be typical hit-or-miss scattered storms, so not everyone will see them by any means, but some scattered coverage is possible.


Due to extensive heating and the front in the area, a couple of stronger-to-potentially severe storms can't be ruled out. The main threat, though, would be damaging wind gusts from any storm that gets out of hand. Generally the greatest coverage of the storms will be from the center part of the state through the late afternoon and evening.


I'll pass along radar updates as usual; hopefully, some folks get lucky and get some much-needed rain to cool them down. I posted some future radars, don't take it literally, but it gives you an idea of how scattered it is.


-Ethan

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