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Winter Storm Threat Increasing for Parts of North Carolina midweek.
šØļøĀ Winter Storm Potential Update: Here we go again, no break for weather forecasters in North Carolina. As the storms this morning and afternoon have finally cleared out, it is time to shift our attention to the potential Winter Storm that'll likely impact North Carolina later this week. There are a lot of uncertainties at this point regarding the exact amounts and impacts, and some models show significant effects on parts of North Carolina from snow and ice. While other models do not show as an aggressive hit. I spent several hours today and yesterday looking over the data and coming up with some scenarios, and I made some graphics that'll explain the full forecast below.
šWHAT: This looks like a classic Miller A storm setup; we will have a low forming across the Gulf and intensifying off the East Coast of the United States, pushing moisture inland Wednesday into Thursday across North Carolina. High pressure to the north will supply cold air, which will allow for parts of North Carolina to likely experience Winter Weather. Exactly who sees snow/sleet/freezing rain/ just rain is still up in the air. However, after reviewing the data this morning, I have been able to narrow it down to two scenarios. At this point the odds of an impactful Winter Storm for parts of North Carolina are growing, I do think some areas will see snow/sleet/freezing rain at this point. Impacts to travel, schedules are becoming increasingly likely Wednesday into Thursday at this point.
šScenario A: The low moves closer to or just along the coast, pushing moisture inland. This would lead to mostly rain across parts of Eastern NC and all of Coastal NC. Parts of West Eastern/Central/Western North Carolina. Would see snow and ice. Mostly, all snow would be possible across Western North Carolina; amounts are still up in the air several days out, and some impacts from snow/ice would be possible across the blue areas in image two. The pink area would be a battleground between snow/sleet/ freezing rain some models show significant accumulation of snow and ice across this area, while others have less moisture with still impacts but not as extreme.
šĀ Scenario B: The low shifts a little further east; this would push all the impacts further east into Eastern NC. I think regardless at this point, right along the coast/beaches, it will just be rain. The best chance for impacts from snow/ice will be Central/Western and parts of Eastern NC 50-70 miles west of the coastline.
š: The Bottom Line: I think the odds of an impactful Winter Storm, both from snow and ice, are increasing; we will have to monitor for impacts Wednesday and Thursday across the state. Forecasting is a science; please don't share clickbait maps with people saying ridiculous amounts of snow/ice 84 hours out. I think some areas across parts of Central/Eastern NC could end up with an impactful ice storm. Hopefully, models will trend lower or have more snow to lessen the impacts from ice. The system will continue to get sampled over the next 24 hours, allowing for better data. We should have a better picture over the next 12-24 hours. There is no reason to raid the grocery stores, but if you're across parts of Central/Western NC and parts of Eastern NC, start to be aware of potential impacts mid-week into the end of the week, thanks to cooler air anything that falls will stick around into the weekend. There is no reason to panic. I'll walk you through the forecast for the next 84 hours, sharing updates as I see fit. That'll help you and your family make decisions with the best data I have and experience forecasting winter weather events over the last 9 years.
-Ethan
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