Winter Storm becoming likely for a good portion of the state this weekend. Accumulating snow odds increasing

❄️ Winter Storm Update: Good afternoon, everyone. It seems the hype and excitement are flying around about this Winter Storm that is coming to North Carolina! There remains the dreaded a considerable amount of uncertainty with how much snow is going to fall across the state, this will not be an even storm there will be folks who get a boom (more snow then expcted) and a bust where there is less snow than expected and nailing down that right now is like throwing a dart into a bulleye over 1,000FT away. I've spent all morning hand-drawing snow's map, throwing it away, and starting over, but I promised a first-call snow map today, so here's my thinking and my first call. That I will stress has considerable uncertainty and is subject to changes. I think something that is certain there will be widespread travel impacts throughout North Carolina this weekend, especially Saturday into Sunday morning.

📌WHAT: An upper-level trough will dive south across the plains this week and move into the Eastern United States. A shortwave will dive out of the Pacific NW and head across the Gulf states this week and off the SE United States, while another piece of energy comes from the North. As a result, an upper-level low to the NW of the state, and a developing area of low pressure along the Carolina coast will produce precipitation. How fast all these pieces come together will be key to how fast the low off the Carolina coast develops. There's still a lot of uncertainty about this, and it'll be about 24 hours before we can really iron out everything.

⏰: Snow will move in late Friday evening to the west, and work east through Saturday morning. On-and-off snow will be around throughout the day on Saturday, ending for nearly everyone on Sunday morning. Once we get a little closer, timing will become more defined.

FIRST CALL SNOWFALL MAP: (Image 1/2) My first call snowfall maps are out. Image 2 is just a closer look at the mountains. There's a lot going on in the snow map, and I'll try to explain my thinking here. This forecast is a headache and has high bust/boom potential. I expect changes over the next 24 hours, but I wanted to provide a solid starting point.

Orange (2-5") I have decided to place nearly all of the state in this. I think it is reasonable to think most areas will get 2-5 inches, with I'm sure sections of this getting more than 5 inches of snow, and that is very possible, but until I get some better certainty. I am not going much higher. I might make a boom map later today to show how much higher the potential could be. However, a couple of inches of snow in this area is likely. Travel impacts are expected. Anything that falls is sticking to y'all. It has been cold.

This also includes the beaches, where some accumulating snow is likely; how much will depend on mixing. I think some mixing/sleet/rain is likely along the beaches.

Hatched Area: This is one of the areas with the highest uncertainty for me in the system; the potential is for a nice boom, with totals ranging from higher to lower. Why? Well, think summertime thunderstorms, we will have banding and dry slots somewhere in North Carolina. We will see a dry slot where moisture transfers from the upper-level low to the west to the developing system along the coast, and you'll see a "no man's land" with lower moisture totals. It is very possible that parts of this hatched area get 5+" of snow while others barely get one inch. Unfortunately, we really can't pin that down right now.

5-8 Dark Blue (Eastern North Carolina) As the low depends along the coast, moisture will be thrown inland, and right now the reasonable totals are about 5-8 inches along and East of I-95 to just inland to the coast. There will be areas with higher snowfall, but again, it depends on where the bands are. There is the potential for a significant snowfall that we haven’t seen in a bit.

Mountains (Image 2): Foothills and lower elevations below 3,000 FT will generally receive 2-5 inches of total, with locally higher amounts. Above 3,000 FT and in favored Northwest flow locations, snowfall will likely be 5-8+ inches, with locally higher amounts.

Gusty winds are possible of 25-40MPH across the state with higher gusts of 45-65MPH along the coast, especially the Outer Banks, Saturday into Sunday.

-The Bottom Line: Snow is on the way for most of NC. How much everyone gets is really up for debate. You're going to see some very high totals floating around. Remember, not everyone is going to see that, and with such a complicated forecast, you're going to see a million different forecasts. I will do my best over the next 36 hours to help everyone across the state understand the forecast. Weather forecasting is a science, not exact. I believe in telling you how it is.

My "first call" forecast places most of North Carolina in a 2-5 inch snowfall range, with the highest amounts (5-8+ inches) likely across Eastern NC and the mountains. However, this is a volatile setup: a "hatched area" of uncertainty means some spots could see a "boom" of heavy snow while others see significantly less due to dry air intruding into the system. Regardless of the final totals, the deep Arctic cold guarantees that everything will stick immediately to roads, making travel dangerous from late Friday through Sunday at least. Brutal cold will be around too, so please have ways to stay warm. Stay tuned!

-Ethan