Severe Weather Risk is increasing for Monday across a good portion of NC. Damaging winds and tornadoes possible.

⛈️ Severe Weather Update: The Severe Weather risk for Monday is increasing across a portion of the state. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare level 4/5 (Moderate Risk) for severe weather for most of Central North Carolina into Southern Virginia due to the increasing risk of damaging winds and tornadoes. Most of the rest of Central and Eastern NC is under a level 3/5 risk, and the rest of the state is under a level 2/5 and 1/5 risk.

-👀WHAT: A very strong cold front, accompanied by very high upper-level winds (wind shear), will move through the state on Monday. As these ingredients come together, the risk of strong to severe storms will develop. There remains some uncertainty about how much CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) there will be on Monday. More sunshine on Monday morning into Monday afternoon would increase the risk of discrete thunderstorms, thereby increasing tornado risk. The risk of this appears to be increasing.

THREATS: The main threat is damaging straight-line winds from a line of storms that'll move west to east late Monday morning into the afternoon and evening. However, the tornado threat is there, especially in the level 3/5 and 4/5 risk. We will have to watch for discrete cells across Central and Eastern NC late morning into the afternoon for tornado risk.

😎 The Bottom Line: There is an Enhanced and Moderate (Level 3 of 5 and 4/5) risk for severe storms across Central and Eastern North Carolina this Monday as a potent cold front moves through. The primary threat will be damaging straight-line winds, though large hail and tornadoes are also possible. There is no reason to panic, but today would be a good idea to make sure your severe weather plans are in place. Watch out for scary hype going around. I’ll keep you updated, as I have for nearly a decade, with down-to-earth forecasts.

-Ethan