Active Weather is ahead; rounds of storms are likely, with some Flash Flooding possible.

Ethan Clark

July 21, 2026 at 8:08:00 PM

Alright guys, let's talk, since it appears everyone in their brother and 3rd cousin once removed has plans this week and into the weekend! Unfortunately, if you have outdoor plans, you'll be at the mercy of Mother Nature for the next few days. An approaching front will bring a very active period of weather through Saturday at least across North Carolina, and if you haven’t had rain yet by Saturday, I am pretty confident you'll have rainfall!

WHAT: A front will move into the state and stall Wednesday night into Thursday; where the stalling occurs will greatly determine who sees potentially significant rainfall through Saturday, which would also have the potential to have Flash Flooding, which is currently favoring somewhere across Central/Eastern NC. Even with drought condtions excessive rainfall just runs off and results in Flash Flooding. Yes, we can flood in droughts.

Wednesday PM/Evening (Image 2): Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, with a limited severe weather risk, with damaging winds as the main threat along the front, which appears to be stalled over parts of Central/Eastern. A level 2/5 risk of Severe Weather has been placed by the Storm Prediction Center; there could be a brief/limited Tornado risk Wednesday evening into the overnight hours (watching)

Thursday: Waves of on-and-off showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the state on and off, favoring Central and Eastern NC. Some could be heavy at times, resulting in potential flash flooding for some. Low severe risk at this point and much cooler temps in the 70s/80s for most areas due to considerable clouds.

Friday: The highest storm chances/rain will be in Central and Southern/Southeastern/Eastern sections of the state. Not a washout, but storms definitely around.

Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend; not a washout by any means, but better chances for more storms and rain the further south and east you are.

The Bottom Line: We need the rain, but all at once could result in some Flash Flooding. I'll be watching over the coming days and pinpoint where exactly as we get a clearer picture. Stay tuned for updates; here are just some thoughts!

-Ethan

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Severe Weather Risk is increasing for Monday across a good portion of NC. Damaging winds and tornadoes possible.

ncwxauthority
Mar 15
2 min read

⛈️ Severe Weather Update: The Severe Weather risk for Monday is increasing across a portion of the state. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare level 4/5 (Moderate Risk) for severe weather for most of Central North Carolina into Southern Virginia due to the increasing risk of damaging winds and tornadoes. Most of the rest of Central and Eastern NC is under a level 3/5 risk, and the rest of the state is under a level 2/5 and 1/5 risk.

-👀WHAT: A very strong cold front, accompanied by very high upper-level winds (wind shear), will move through the state on Monday. As these ingredients come together, the risk of strong to severe storms will develop. There remains some uncertainty about how much CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) there will be on Monday. More sunshine on Monday morning into Monday afternoon would increase the risk of discrete thunderstorms, thereby increasing tornado risk. The risk of this appears to be increasing.

THREATS: The main threat is damaging straight-line winds from a line of storms that'll move west to east late Monday morning into the afternoon and evening. However, the tornado threat is there, especially in the level 3/5 and 4/5 risk. We will have to watch for discrete cells across Central and Eastern NC late morning into the afternoon for tornado risk.

😎 The Bottom Line: There is an Enhanced and Moderate (Level 3 of 5 and 4/5) risk for severe storms across Central and Eastern North Carolina this Monday as a potent cold front moves through. The primary threat will be damaging straight-line winds, though large hail and tornadoes are also possible. There is no reason to panic, but today would be a good idea to make sure your severe weather plans are in place. Watch out for scary hype going around. I’ll keep you updated, as I have for nearly a decade, with down-to-earth forecasts.

-Ethan