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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Severe Weather Risk is increasing across the state for Monday.

Writer: Ethan Clark
Ethan Clark
Mar 14
2 min read

 Severe Weather Update: Good Saturday morning, everyone. There is a growing risk of strong to severe storms across North Carolina on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Central and Eastern parts of the state under a level 3/5 Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather. Rest of the state under level 1 and 2. This risk 3/5 is a higher-level risk and is usually reserved for scattered to numerous severe storms.


-WHAT: A very strong cold front, accompanied by very high upper-level winds (wind shear), will move through the state on Monday. As these ingredients come together, the risk of strong to severe storms will develop. There remains some uncertainty about how much CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) there will be on Monday. More sunshine on Monday morning into Monday afternoon would increase the risk of discrete thunderstorms, thereby increasing tornado risk. Something to watch, the severe weather risk is still not a slam dunk because more rain and clouds could ultimately decrease it, but it’s worth watching for sure.

THREATS: The main threat, given the strong upper-level winds, would be damaging straight-line winds, but a tornado threat and some large hail are also possible.

 The Bottom Line: There is an Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk for severe storms across Central and Eastern North Carolina this Monday as a potent cold front moves through. The primary threat will be damaging straight-line winds, though large hail and tornadoes are also possible. There is no reason to panic, but today and tomorrow would be a good idea to make sure your severe weather plans are in place. Watch out for scary hype going around. I’ll keep you updated, as I have for nearly a decade, with down-to-earth forecasts.

-Ethan

 
 
 

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