Severe Weather Risk is increasing across the state for Monday.

 Severe Weather Update: Good Saturday morning, everyone. There is a growing risk of strong to severe storms across North Carolina on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Central and Eastern parts of the state under a level 3/5 Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather. Rest of the state under level 1 and 2. This risk 3/5 is a higher-level risk and is usually reserved for scattered to numerous severe storms.

-WHAT: A very strong cold front, accompanied by very high upper-level winds (wind shear), will move through the state on Monday. As these ingredients come together, the risk of strong to severe storms will develop. There remains some uncertainty about how much CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) there will be on Monday. More sunshine on Monday morning into Monday afternoon would increase the risk of discrete thunderstorms, thereby increasing tornado risk. Something to watch, the severe weather risk is still not a slam dunk because more rain and clouds could ultimately decrease it, but it’s worth watching for sure.

THREATS: The main threat, given the strong upper-level winds, would be damaging straight-line winds, but a tornado threat and some large hail are also possible.

 The Bottom Line: There is an Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk for severe storms across Central and Eastern North Carolina this Monday as a potent cold front moves through. The primary threat will be damaging straight-line winds, though large hail and tornadoes are also possible. There is no reason to panic, but today and tomorrow would be a good idea to make sure your severe weather plans are in place. Watch out for scary hype going around. I’ll keep you updated, as I have for nearly a decade, with down-to-earth forecasts.

-Ethan