The odds of yet another Winter Storm to NC is increasing but not a certain

Winter Storm Update: Hey everyone, I guess we're gonna really do this again. It is pretty wild to be honest, not very common in NC for back to back winter storms. I've been in denial all week, but models continue to suggest the potential is there for another round of Winter Weather, mainly in the form of snow, which is even rarer. I'll say as of this morning, the odds of at least some accumulating snowfall are increasing across the state, still not a 100% lock because, well it is North Carolina after all and sometimes things are too good to be true.

I've seen some very choice model runs floating around, remember we're still 72-84 hours out, and things will change. I've spent the morning reviewing the data, and here are my latest thoughts. No, the world is not going to end; we will be just fine.

📌WHAT: An upper-level trough will dive south across the plains this week and move into the Eastern United States. A shortwave will dive out of the Pacific NW and head across the Gulf states this week and off the SE United States, while another piece of energy comes from the North. As a result, an upper-level low to the NW of the state, and a developing area of low pressure along the Carolina coast will produce precipitation. How fast all these pieces come together will be key to how fast the low off the Carolina coast develops. Some throw it together fast and rapidly strengthen it, which in turn gives NC more moisture, while others keep it weak and further offshore, which would be generally a lower impact storm.

-Models are struggling with this because there are so many pieces, so that's why we're seeing large jumps in the models, and resulting in a wide range of snowfall amounts, with some showing very high snowfall amounts. The models should start to come together over the next day or so, and we should have a clearer picture.

-That being said, I think the odds of accumulating snowfall across North Carolina are increasing. I would not say it is 100% locked, as there is still a higher-than-usual concern about setup-related problems.

📌FORECAST: Here's a look at what I think will happen. I've narrowed it down to two main scenarios, with 1 being the most likely right now, but I can't rule out the other just yet.

Scenario 1️⃣: As of today, this is the most likely scenario. Models have mostly trended abruptly toward this, but whether they hold over the next 12-24 hours will be key. The low rapidly strengthens along the coast, drawing moisture from the upper-level low and the low pressure off the coast to produce snow. Temperatures are quite cold in the profile, so I think this would be an all-snow or snow/rain event with little to no ice, which is highly unusual.

Light Green (Rain/Snow): This would be along the coast near the low, we would likely see a mixture of rain to snow as the low develops because of how strong the low is it'll drag in some warmer temperatures so a mixture of snow/rain here but some snow accumlation is definitely possible, but how much is a good question. Coastal Flooding from gusty winds (think Noreaster) would be possible along the Outer Banks.

Light Blue (Mostly all snow) Here is where I think all snow would be possible, mostly with at least some light accumulation possible, but some uncertainty about how much moisture works across the mountains, but at least some light snow is possible at this point, higher as you head east.

Dark Blue (Greatest chance for several inches of snow) Somewhere across parts of Central/Eastern NC, higher snow bands could set up, which would result in more snowfall. Some models have gone crazy and have a good amount of snow, like 6+ inches or higher, but for now we're going to keep our expectations low. I've been around the block long enough to know models typically start high and come down quickly as we get closer, so I'll be conservative for now and see short-range data come in.

-Impacts Scenario 1️⃣: Let's be real, any snow will cause problems. It's been cold and will stay cold, so it'll stick quickly, thankfully lower ice potential, so it doesn’t make the roads as bad, and this should be a light and fluffy snow, but hazardous travel is definitely possible. Gusty winds will result in blowing snow, but thanks to the lighter snow, I think the power outage threat is low! So more of just an inconvenience on the roads, but less so for impacts to power etc!

Scenario 2️⃣: This scenario has a lower chance of happening, but a few models and I've personally seen this happen keep the low weaker and offshore for the most part. This would likely lead to some light snowfall along the coast, and that's about it, some lighter stuff maybe further inland.

What do I think will happen? Right now, I give a 60% chance of scenario 1 and a 30% chance of scenario 2. Hopefully, I can get rid of 2 soon, but I am not ready to write it off because I've been around the block long enough to know things will change. So we will watch a little longer before we lock in with certainty.

😎The Bottom Line: Well, I guess we really are doing this again; back-to-back winter storms are rare for North Carolina, but the odds of accumulating snow this weekend are definitely increasing. I am currently leaning about 60% toward a scenario where a strengthening coastal low brings accumulating snow to a good portion of NC, though I’ve been around the block long enough to know we aren't at a "lock" just yet. The silver lining is that this setup favors snow over ice, so while travel could become hazardous quickly, the risk of widespread power outages appears much lower this time around. Forecasting weather is a science, so things will change; don't take the forecast exactly, but be aware of potential impacts. No need to rush to the store, doesn’t everyone have enough stuff to last them until next winter at this point 😂. Very cold, long-duration cold air is expected, with single-digit to below-0 wind chills likely for many this weekend. So be aware, as we're going on 7 days of well below-average air temperatures. I'll continue to monitor the short-range data to see whether the models hold this aggressive trend or back off, as they sometimes do.

I'll keep you posted like always. Thank you for hanging around and giving me your trust!

-Ethan