Watching the tropics

Tropical Update: Hey everyone, I hope you're having a great day. The tropics are ramping back up, which is very typical for this time of year. Here's my latest thoughts on the tropics as of looking through early morning data and some lunchtime data, the setup is incredibly complicated that for sure. I know there are a lot of nervous people, but let's take a deep breath and relax for a little bit. I am going to walk you through everything we know now.

Let me dive into the forecast. We have two systems that I am currently monitoring, and both are likely to be challenging to forecast. I am not concerned right now, just watching the models and trends for now.

🔴 System 1 (Invest 94L): There is a tropical wave located in the Caribbean Sea that is producing showers and thunderstorms. The wave is moving west-northwestward over the Caribbean and bringing impacts to parts of the Caribbean Islands. It is expected to move across the Dominican Republic tonight and into Thursday. The National Hurricane Center gives it an 80% chance of becoming a Tropical system over the next 5-7 days once it reaches the SW Atlantic near the Bahamas.

🔴System 2 (Invest 93L): This system is located in the Central and Western Atlantic Ocean, and based on the latest satellite data this system is close to becoming a Tropical Depression/Storm, and I think that'll happen within the next 12-24 hours. While the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands. The current forecast models suggest that this system will turn out to sea and possibly impact Bermuda, but that's it. However, how this system impacts 94L and how they both interact is a big question.

📌Inside the Forecast: What will happen and where on earth will all these systems go? (Graphic 2) This is a million-dollar $ question, and the forecast pattern heading into the weekend and early next week is incredibly complex, causing models to be all over the place and creating a complete headache. I've spent the better part of the morning analyzing the data and creating a graphic of how I think the setup will be. Let me explain it.

-We have 3 main players driving the forecast late this weekend into early next week.

- An upper-level low will be over the Southeast United States this weekend and early next week (bringing our increased rain/storm chances). Upper-level lows are notoriously difficult to forecast; they can last longer than expected, move out faster, or be much weaker, and models struggle to predict them accurately.

-94L will likely be moving into the Bahamas at the time, and how strong it is, and the upper level low is it could help drive the storm. The upper-level low placement is key; one further west could allow for it to want to drag 94L into the SE United States. Models are all over the place, so we just don't know.

-Also, 94L is moving through the Caribbean Sea and has to turn north; as a result, the system could run over the very high mountains of the Dominican Republic. This could completely disrupt the system now and prevent the circulation that is already in place from even developing. I can't rule that out. I've seen it happen before.

-However, the upper level is not the only thing in town. We have another key aspect, a weakness in the high pressure that would allow at least 93L to try and turn and work its way out to sea. This would also create an opening for 94L to try to work out to sea; however, how this comes together is giving the models a headache.

- Our 3rd thing we have is a trough/cold front working across parts of the Eastern/NE United States that would support pulling the systems out to sea, and we can wave goodbye 👋.

-Wait right there! It is not as clear-cut as that, I wish it were, and in the end, it still could be. However, we have two systems developing in close range of each other. How they interact with each other is a big ?. A weaker 94L with just some thunderstorms could be able to feed moisture into 93L and allow for it to be strong and move away. This would allow for 94L to never develop, but it's possible they both develop, they won't combine into one major storm, that's not possible. So, anyone posting double problems is crazy, but systems are not going to impact the United States. Either one does or neither does!

-If both systems develop and get too close to each other, they would have the Fujiwhara effect happen, and they would spin around each other. Ideally, the stronger dominant one, which would likely be 93L, would still generally push both out to sea.

😎 The Bottom Line: The forecast remains complex. At this time, there is equal odds both systems could develop 93L heads out to sea, 94L could impact the SE United States early next week, or both head out to sea and never directly impact the SE United States. I think it is almost certain 93L develops; what happens to 94L is the wild card. What we can do now, is keep watching the systems. I wish I could say with 100% certainty we will either be impacted or not right now, and I can't; there is just too much back and forth and so many things that need to come together. I think models are struggling with that. So what you should do now is just have a Hurricane plan in place and go on with your life, don't cancel beach plans etc.

Keep checking back for updates over the next few days, and hopefully we can sound the all clear. As of now, I am not worried, just watching for now. I hope this at least helped you understand the setup and what we have to watch. Forecasting the weather is a science, and nothing is certain this far in advance, especially with a highly complex setup. Watch out for hype and scary models being floated around; many of those will never happen. I'll keep you updated and tell you what I think in a down-to-earth manner.

-Ethan