Watching for potential tropical impacts to the Carolinas.

🌀 Tropical Update: Good morning, everyone. I know there are a lot of people who are nervous and scared about what they're seeing in the tropics. Please take a deep breath and relax. As expected, the tropics are getting quite busy; nothing unusual we face this. threat almost every year. Here are my latest thoughts on the tropics, based on early morning and late morning data. The setup is incredibly complicated, that's for sure. I wish I were coming to sound the all clear, but as of now, I am not.

- Key Message you get from this: Let me dive into the forecast. We have two systems that I am currently monitoring, and both are likely to be challenging to forecast. This morning, I am becoming a little more concerned that there could be direct impacts to the SE United States, especially somewhere from Georgia to North Carolina, early next week.

📌In image two below, you'll see the graphic I made. Saying KNOW for most of the SE this means you should start paying attention closely and think about potential plans you need to make, especially across Central and Eastern sections of GA/SC/NC. This page is primarily for the North Carolina forecast, but due to a high request, I have added South Carolina to my map today. There is still high uncertainty since there is no Central of circulation with Invest 94L, so models are going to still jump around. We can't lock anything in, but since this could impact folks as soon as Monday/Tuesday, we have to start thinking more about it.

So what the heck is going on?

🔴 System 1 (Invest 94L/next name is Imelda): There is a tropical wave located in the Caribbean Sea moving over the Dominican Republic heading for the Bahamas that is producing showers and thunderstorms. The wave is moving west-northwestward over the Caribbean and bringing impacts to parts of the Caribbean Islands. It is expected to move across the Dominican Republic today and into the southern Bahamas, where an area of low pressure is expected to form. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 70% chance of becoming a Tropical system over the next 48 hours and a 90% over the next 5-7 days once it reaches the SW Atlantic near the Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center says "Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system as heavy rains and gusty winds are likely across that region regardless of development. Interests along the coast of the southeastern United States should also monitor the progress of this system. "

-We should watch this system closely.

🔴 System 2 (Tropical Storm Humberto) Tropical Storm developed yesterday in the Central tropical Atlantic and has winds of 45 MPH. It is located approximately 465 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. It is expected to become a Hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the next day or so. The current forecast models suggest that this system will turn out to sea and possibly impact Bermuda, but it does not pose an immediate threat to NC or the United States. However, how this system impacts 94L and how they both interact is a big question.

📌Inside the Forecast: What will happen and where on earth will all these systems go? (Graphic 3) This is a million-dollar $ question, and the forecast pattern heading into the weekend and early next week is incredibly complex, causing models to be all over the place and creating a complete headache. I've spent the better part of the morning analyzing the data and creating a graphics of how I think the setup will be. Let me explain it

-This morning trend on the models is Humberto moving further west and pushing 94L further west, causing it to potentially impact the SE United States. Let me warn you, 94L has no closed center of circulation, so models should be taken with a grain of salt while they figure it out.

-We have 3 main players driving the forecast late this weekend into early next week.

- An upper-level low will be over the Southeast United States this weekend and early next week (bringing our increased rain/storm chances). Upper-level lows are notoriously difficult to forecast; they can last longer than expected, move out faster, or be much weaker, and models struggle to predict them accurately.

-94L will likely be moving into the Bahamas at the time, and how strong it is, and the upper level low is it could help drive the storm. The upper-level low placement is key; one further west could allow for it to want to drag 94L into the SE United States. Models are all over the place, so we just don't know.

-Also, 94L is moving through the Caribbean Sea and has to turn north; as a result, the system could run over the very high mountains of the Dominican Republic. This could completely disrupt the system now and prevent the circulation that is already in place from even developing. I can't rule that out. I've seen it happen before. However, as of this morning, the overnight models are not really showing this.

-However, the upper level is not the only thing in town. We have another key aspect, a weakness in the high pressure that would allow at least Humberto to try and turn and work its way out to sea. This would also create an opening for 94L to try to work out to sea; however, how this comes together is giving the models a headache.

-Wait right there! It is not as clear-cut as that, I wish it were, and in the end, it still could be. However, we have two systems developing in close range of each other. How they interact with each other is a big ?. A weaker 94L with just some thunderstorms could be able to feed moisture into Humberto and allow for it to be strong and move away. This would allow for 94L to never develop, but it's looking likely they both develop, they won't combine into one major storm, that's not possible. So, anyone posting double problems is crazy, both systems are not going to impact the United States. Either one does or neither does!

-If both systems develop and get too close to each other, they would have the Fujiwhara effect happen, and they would spin around each other. Definitely another thing is thrown in the forecast.

😎The Bottom Line: The shifts this morning and overnight on the models are showing direct impacts to the SE United States, especially the Carolinas, from 94L, but is it a trend or a windshield wiper effect where the models all shift back? It is something we will watch over the next 24 hours. What we can do now, is keep watching the systems. I wish I could say with 100% certainty we will either be impacted or not right now, and I can't; there is just too much back and forth and so many things that need to come together. I think models are struggling with that. So what you should do now is just have a Hurricane plan in place and go on with your life, don't cancel beach plans. However, now would be a good time to review your plans in case you do need to cancel plans. That's why I have us in the KNOW!

As of today, I am a little more concerned about 94L, especially the Coastal areas of the Carolinas. We need to watch it closely because once we are certain, there will be a limited time when we could see impacts as early as Monday/Tuesday, if it affects us. Forecasting the weather is a science, and nothing is certain this far in advance, especially with a highly complex setup. Watch out for hype and scary models being floated around; many of those will never happen. I'll keep you updated and tell you what I think in a down-to-earth manner. Don't worry I have cleared out my schedule to focus on this 😊!

-Ethan