Winter Weather Update: Hey, everyone, I hope all is well. There is a significant amount of interest regarding the forecast for next week; I've received well over 1,000 private messages regarding whether should I change my plans, my weather app says this, this weather page says this, and my friend said this? You name it; I've probably heard it in the last 72 hours. I've poured through model data all day and watched the trends, so here we go your favorite scenario maps are back. I've used these to forecast hurricane events, and I think they're a perfect way to portray the forecast and be transparent.

WHAT: An Arctic blast through the state on Sunday night. We know for a fact that it is going to be very cold next week. Our coldest temperatures in years for most of the state, many areas will stay below freezing for up to 72 hours. The National Weather Service says, " Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected early next week. A prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures is possible across portions of central NC Monday through the middle part of next week." This is definitely happening, so be prepared for that.
The forecast becomes much more unclear as to whether we will see any winter precipitation after this cold air mass moves in.
- It is very hard to get snow here in North Carolina, especially outside of the mountains; many factors must come together for snow lovers in North Carolina it normally leads to excitement leading up to it, followed by disappointment. This time the hype is alive and well, no different than normal but includes more of the state.
-Folks along the coast are now seeing posts about potential snow, and those weather apps the darn apps have the snowflake icon. For the sake of the many snow lovers I have that follow me from Eastern/Coastal NC, I am cheering for you. I don't want you to get your hopes up just yet. So many little things must come together with this setup to get snow here, and the models really can't figure out the small parts.
- I'll walk you through the scenarios below, I am being transparent and showing you all the potential solutions so you know what meteorologists are seeing.
-As I see it now, there are 3 main solutions/scenarios for the potential system midweek next week.

-We will have a high-pressure system in place, bringing all the cold air to North Carolina where the high is placed and how strong it is matters; if the high is further north, it'll allow for the low-pressure system to move closer to North Carolina. If the high-pressure system is further south and east, it'll push the low-pressure system south and east out to sea along with the precipitation
SCENARIO A: The high pressure is very strong and located closer to North Carolina; we get a suppression of the low-pressure system and precipitation field. This leads to NO SNOW/ICE/RAIN in North Carolina; it is just cold/dry and sunny. Some models do show this. Sorry, snow lovers nothing happens with this setup. It's just very cold and, as some say a waste of cold air.

SCENARIO B: The high pressure is still pretty strong and close to North Carolina, but the low-pressure system is able to work a little closer to the North Carolina coast. The precipitation field is able to spread somewhat inland, this setup would mainly bring snow/ice to Eastern/Coastal NC and not really anywhere else in North Carolina. This would be an incredibly rare event, with accumulating snow along the coast for the first time in years. Some models do show this.

SCENARIO C: The high is more north but keeps us cold, but the low-pressure system moves right along the coast and brings snow/ice to most, if not all of the state. This is possible, some models show this.

Which one will happen? Well, right now, I am giving all scenarios an equal chance. No one can sit here right now and say well, you're for sure getting snow, and no one can really say no; not a chance you get any winter weather. Unfortunately, with the amount of little things that come together, no model can accurately forecast this far out on this. It would be reckless to put out snow maps amount this far out, and it would just be hype and clicks.
The Bottom Line: Don't panic, don't cancel plans don't live, and die by the weather apps or some random hype. I would stay tuned through the weekend, I'll be watching the trends and updating as we get better data. The system will be developing across the Pacific Ocean, and other pieces of the puzzle will start coming together. I think the models will be able to start getting the hang of it over the next 48-72 hours; I'll keep you posted. Don't fall for hype or stuff that seems very unlikely. The one thing you can do now is prepare for very cold weather next week, which is definitely happening. Have many ways to stay warm, electric, gas, wood, etc make sure they're working. People without proper heat could die during this cold weather period. I'll keep you posted like I have for 9 years.

-Ethan
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