Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Coastal Low to bring gusty winds, rain, statewide and the risk of Coastal Flooding to the Outer Banks

Ethan Clark
Oct 27, 2025
2 min read

Coastal Low to bring Coastal Flooding and gusty winds to parts of the state tonight into Wednesday, the most significant concern for Coastal Flooding is along the Outer Banks. Rain is expected statewide from this, but there is once again a concern for Coastal Flooding, mainly along the Outer Banks, through Wednesday during high tides.

📌Coastal Flood Warning has been issued by the National Weather Service starting this morning through Wednesday evening for all of the Outer Banks south of Oregon Inlet (Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands) NE Winds will start to pick up today and continue to increase through Tuesday moderate to locally significant impacts are possible along the Outer Banks from Coastal Flooding during high tides in the vulnerable areas of the Outer Banks.

📌2-4FT is Coastal Flooding is possible in areas South of Oregon Inlet on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. There will be some ocean overwash, especially in the prone areas of Ocracoke, Hatteras, Buxton, Avon, Rodanthe, Waves, Pea Island, and Oregon Inlet. There will be times when Highway 12 could flood during high tide on Pea Island, Buxton, and the North end of Ocracoke, making it impassable at times tonight through Wednesday during high tides.

📌There will be some minor 1-2FT coastal flooding along the southern Pamlico Sound, Core Sound, Neuse/Bay Rivers and

Pamlico/Pungo Rvrs through Wednesday from gusty winds.

📌WINDS: Gusty winds are possible statewide through Wednesday, but the strongest winds will be along the coastal areas, particularly the Outer Banks. 40-60MPH (DARK RED) Wind Gusts will be stronger on the Outer Banks thanks to being closer to the low, so 45-60MPH wind gusts are possible Saturday-Monday mainly. Loose outdoor objects (trash bins, signs, furniture, flags, Halloween decor) can become airborne and cause minor damage. High-profile vehicles (box trucks, RVs, trailers) can be difficult to control on bridges. There could be some scattered power outages from this. Inland areas, some gusty winds will be around, but nothing really concerning, just blustery and chilly.

The Bottom Line: More Coastal Flooding is expected for the vulnerable areas of the Outer Banks. Once again, I hate it, but that has been the theme this year. If you have plans on the Outer Banks in the next few days, be prepared for some impacts along Highway 12. Everyone will see rain on and off the next 2 days across the state, nothing too concerning with the rain; we need it. I'll pass along some radar updates as usual over the next few days!

-Ethan