Coastal Low Expected to bring heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and storm surge to parts of North Carolina!

Coastal Low/ Nor'easter Update: Good afternoon, everyone. Our forecast remains on track as of this morning. There have been no major changes. A developing coastal low will bring impacts to parts of North Carolina over the next 24-36 hours. As of now, my main concern from this continues to be the Coastal Flooding threat, but there is still a risk of gusty winds and some heavy rainfall. Since I want to clear the air now, there is no threat to Western North Carolina for any impacts, and very little impact is expected across Central North Carolina, too. Here's my latest update and thoughts, along with a full breakdown of potential impacts as they stand right now. My main change is some rain will work further west across Central North Carolina on Saturday especially in the afternoon and evening into Saturday night.

📌A Cold front that passed has stalled off the coast. This same cold front will stall off the coast, and an area of low pressure could develop along the front, setting the stage for a long-duration coastal low. Exactly where the low travels is still up for debate, but there is a significant risk of coastal flooding along the Outer Banks (especially south of Oregon Inlet) at this point. The key factor in how far west the low travels is how far the rain will reach in Central NC, but regardless, more rain west is a good thing. We need the rain!

🌊 Graphic 1/2: (COASTAL FLOODING "STORM SURGE")

A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service starting Saturday morning through Monday morning for all of the Outer Banks south of Oregon Inlet (Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands) NE Winds will start to pick up today and continue to increase through the weekend moderate to major impacts are possible along the Outer Banks from Coastal Flooding. The one thing that has changed is that we could see the wind direction change at some point to a north to northwest wind along the Outer Banks, which could increase the soundside flooding risk on Ocracoke and Hatteras Island.

Looking at the latest data, the most concerning time for Coastal Flooding will be Saturday into Monday night during high tides and with the greatest risk along the Outer Banks, especially Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. East and South Facing Beaches will be the most concerned. If you're on Ocracoke and Hatteras Island and need to leave I would leave before the weekend because travel along Highway 12 could be quite hard Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, especially in the prone areas of Ocracoke, Hatteras, Buxton, Avon, Rodanthe, Waves, and Oregon Inlet. Basically, Oregon Inlet south has the greatest risk in my opinion. This is expected to be a prolonged event starting Friday PM-Monday morning. Ferries will likely be impacted on the Outer Banks. I think it is a pretty good bet that Highway 12 is impacted at some points this weekend on the Outer Banks, South of Oregon Inlet, areas north should not have problems on 12.

The National Weather Service says: "Up to 2 to 4 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in some areas near shorelines and tidal waterways resulting in an elevated threat of property damage around the times of high tide. Flooding will extend inland from the waterfront threatening some homes and businesses. Numerous road closures and flooding of vehicles will be possible, most notably along NC 12 where ocean overwash may make several portions of the highway inaccessible across

Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands."

Graphic 2: Southern Coastal Areas: Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding is possible across the beaches of Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Onslow, and Carteret Counties, Friday to Sunday, with some vulnerable areas experiencing Coastal Flooding. Roads near the coast in vulnerable areas can flood during High tides, and beach erosion is likely due to high surf and rip currents. We have already seen some minor flooding in these areas today, and I expect similar impacts over the weekend.

💨 WIND GRAPHIC 3: I've had a lot of questions about the wind gusts. We will likely see some gusty winds. As the cold front passes through, gusty winds are likely statewide on tonight and Friday, but they are not expected to be particularly high. The primary concern for winds will be Saturday-Monday, mainly along the coast. The wind forecast remains highly fluid and subject to change, but my current map from yesterday remains mostly on track I adjusted the 35-45MPH a little further west into Eastern North Carolina.

35-45MPH (RED) Wind Gusts are possible across Eastern NC areas and the Southeastern Coastline. This could blow around light outdoor objects, trash cans, patio furniture, and Halloween decorations. There could be a couple of localized power outages, but nothing too concerning. Winds to this strength are nothing we can't handle. Along the Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Onslow, and Carteret County beaches it is possible some 45-50MPH gusts occur Saturday night into Sunday.

45-60MPH (DARK RED) Wind Gusts will be stronger on the Outer Banks thanks to being closer to the low, so 45-60MPH wind gusts are possible Saturday-Monday mainly. Loose outdoor objects (trash bins, signs, furniture, flags, Halloween decor) can become airborne and cause minor damage. High-profile vehicles (box trucks, RVs, trailers) can be difficult to control on bridges. There could be some scattered power outages from this.

20-35MPH: Inland areas across Central NC, it'll be breezy, but at this point, nothing concerning.

🌧️ RAIN: We will see some rainfall out of this low-pressure system, but amounts still don't look all that high. Saturday, inland areas are expected to remain dry some of the day, but the best chance of rain at this point is from Saturday afternoon/ night into Monday morning across Central and Eastern North Carolina. We're still working to figure out exact timing, but rain is possible at any point this weekend along the coast. ( I will post a timeline soon) The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall along the coast, where 4-6 inches are possible along the Outer Banks, with 2-4 inches possible across the southern coastline. Inland areas rain amounts will fall off quickly and are still highly subject to track changes. There could be some localized flooding in some spots, but thanks to the drier weather recently, I am not expecting too many problems from freshwater. I'll post a rough timeline of the rain forecast tomorrow.

Soundside/River/Creek Flooding Potential in Pamlico and Southern Craven Counties:I've gotten a lot of questions regarding potential flooding across parts of the tide areas of the Pamlico Sound, Trent Bay, lower Neuse River, and surrounding tidal creeks. This area has experienced severe flooding in the past; thankfully, I don't expect anything significant. However, some minor flooding of 1-3 feet above ground level in spots will be possible mainly Wednesday night through Thursday for these areas. There could be a couple of flooded roads, lots, and parks in this area. Hopefully this helps, I know people are nervous in this area from previous experience.

😎 Bottom Line: A long-duration coastal low is increasingly likely to impact Eastern and Coastal North Carolina this weekend, especially the Outer Banks. Moderate to major coastal flooding is possible south of Oregon Inlet, with travel disruptions likely along Highway 12 from Saturday through Monday. Gusty winds (45–60 MPH) may bring scattered power outages and beach erosion, while heavy surf and rip currents will persist through the weekend. Rainfall totals of 4–6 inches are possible on the Outer Banks, with lighter amounts inland depending on the storm’s track. While inland NC sees breezy weather and some rain, the greatest threats remain along the coast, especially for those with vulnerable property or weekend travel plans. No worries for Western North Carolina. The forecast is still fluid, so this is subject to change some. Forecasting weather is a science, so I am using all the available data and my past experiences to provide you with the best forecast. We still have 12-24 hours, so some thing will change but I like how everything looks. I am watching and will be providing updates as needed. We will be just fine I promise.

-Ethan