Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Tropical Update Tuesday July 1st.

Ethan Clark

Jul 1, 2025

2 min read

🌀 TROPICAL UPDATE: It's been a while since I've posted one of these, but with July here, we're heading into prime Hurricane Season. The National Hurricane Center, along with forecasters alike, are monitoring a frontal boundary that is expected to stall just off the Southeast Coastline later this week. It is possible that some (Low Chance) tropical development could occur.

Stalled frontal boundaries are notorious for giving models trouble, and this one is no different. I've been keeping an eye on this behind the scenes for several days, but I've decided to post now since I'm getting so many questions with the 4th of July holiday approaching. As of now, this is expected to bring widespread rain to parts of Florida later this week through the weekend. Further beyond that, it is too soon to know what will happen with this potential system. As of now, it does not pose an immediate threat to North Carolina. I expect the holiday weekend to be a typical summer weekend, with highs in the 80s and 90s and just a stray isolated afternoon or evening storm chance across the state.

We will monitor this low and see where it goes over the coming day to ensure nothing changes. If it moves further north closer, it could enhance the storm chances late this weekend into early next week. Be aware of the hype; there's nothing to worry about right now. Keep your beach plans and enjoy! As always, I'll keep an eye on things and post updates as needed until this thing is history; you can count on it. Now is the time to stay aware of the Tropics, regardless things can change in a hurry. I will be keeping a close eye on everything from now until November.

-Ethan

Mountains

Raleigh area

Tropical Update Tuesday July 1st.

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