Tropical Storm Erin Update: Still watching the system for now.

🌀 Tropical Storm Erin Update: Good Tuesday afternoon, everyone. There is substantial interest in the future forecast of Tropical Storm Erin. I have spent the last few hours creating new graphics, analyzing new data, and working to make the most transparent and understandable forecast possible. So let me walk you through everything and why you don't need to panic, keep an eye out for now.

Let's talk about where Erin is now:

📌 As of 11AM, Tropical Storm Erin was located 1,765 miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands. The system is relatively weak as it is working through dry conditions and cooler water temperatures, which is something models are struggling with, as most had it stronger by now. Erin will keep pushing west to even south some. The weaker the system is, the further south it'll go over the next 84 hours, as low-level winds will guide it west. The official National Hurricane Center Forecast (image 1 below) indicates that it will drop more southward over the next few days, strengthening into a Hurricane by the weekend and potentially a Category 3 Hurricane by Sunday as it passes by the Northern Caribbean Islands. Interests in the Northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of the system over the next few days, as you're now in the cone of uncertainty, some impacts could be possible.

The million-dollar $ question is, where does Erin go after this? Where will the system be early next week? Here's what the National Hurricane Center says: " There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts, if any, might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week. As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place." I think it sums it up great.

👌So, as I analyze the forecast, what do I think? Well, I am bringing the good old scenarios. This is a great way to showcase the forecast. I believe in transparency and showing you everything, which is why I'm explaining it all.

📌Scenario 1: (Best Case Scenario Image 1) As of this afternoon, looking at the data, this is most likely the scenario with the greatest odds of happening. Erin is pretty well north of the islands early next week, in the Monday timeframe. There is a strong trough moving through Southern Canada and the Northern US, which allows for Erin to make a curve to the north. Why? Well, there is the Atlantic Ridge of High pressure and a high pressure over the South/East/Central United States. A stronger/faster Erin is able to feed the breakness in between the two high-pressure systems, essentially splitting the sticks and heading out to sea, missing the United States and North Carolina, staying well east. The only impacts to North Carolina would be High Surf and Rip Currents late week, and Erin would be history.

📌Scenario 2: (Worst Case Scenario Image 2) Currently, this is the least likely setup, as very few models show it, but things can always trend this way. We're over 7-8 days away, and weather conditions can change. I mean, come on, sometimes we can barely get the forecast right 12 hours out. We're discussing things that won't be developed or sampled for 8 days. Erin is weaker/ and or much further south early next week, moving into the Bahamas or very near. The trough is faster further north and moving away, as a result, Erin can't gain longitude fast enough but still makes that northward turn. The high pressure over the Central Atlantic ends up being stronger than models think right now, this builds back west, forcing Erin to turn north still, but move further west. The high over the Southern/Eastern/Central US is weaker and further west. This would allow Erin to pass on the Western Side (left side) of the forecast track, potentially bringing direct impacts to parts of the Southeast US/North Carolina/South Carolina areas. The odds of this happening right now are not very high, but I don't think we can be 100% certain about it this far off.

😎 The Bottom Line: There is no reason to panic; we still have days to watch Erin. Don't go canceling your plans or anything like that, keep everything on schedule. It is still too soon to know for sure where Erin will go beyond 5-7 days, but model trends are a good way to see what the setup could look like. As of now, the most likely scenario is out to sea. I've been doing this for over a decade, and if you've been here long enough, you know never say never. I would like to see model data over the next few days, and I think by late week and weekend, we should have a pretty good idea if we can give the all clear. Forecasting weather is a science, models are just guidance. Even in this day and age, we can't live 100% by them; they will change. Everyone take a deep breath.

Don't get caught up in doomsday posts. If I am concerned, I will let you know. Right now, I am not I am just watching it closely. There is nothing you can really do except make sure you have a Hurricane Plan in place, and keep an eye out ot trusted sources. I know this is a stressful time, but take a deep breath and all will be just fine. I'll keep providing updates over the next few days, don't worry!

-Ethan