North Carolina will see some indirect impacts from Hurricane Isaias

Ethan Clark

October 8, 2026 at 11:50:44 AM

🌀 Hurricane Isaias Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I know you've been waiting for this; here's my forecast update on Isaias's indirect impacts on North Carolina this weekend. The positives: This is NOT a repeat of Helene by any means at all, so please don't think that! The weekend isn't a total washout; there will be dry time, and the storm is moving fast enough to clear out pretty quickly. The world is not ending here in NC, and we will be just fine. Don't stress. Isaias became a Hurricane overnight and will keep strengthening until landfall, and it will make landfall along the Florida/Alabama-Mississippi coast on Friday evening; significant impacts are likely in these areas. This update will cover impacts in NC, though. Even though Isaias's center will go into Tennessee and not impact NC directly, we will get indirect impacts from the outer bands and the surrounding front.

📌Here's how I think it'll play out:

RAIN: Scattered to isolated showers will be around across the state Saturday morning, and but there will be breaks and dry time for sure Saturday morning into the afternoon; coverage looks pretty hit or miss. Saturday afternoon and evening rain chances ramp up, especially west and along the coast, it seems; some rain could be heavy at times by the time the evening and overnight rolls along. Sunday morning rain will be around hit or miss throughout the state, and start clearing out Sunday PM/evening. The race in Charlotte is trending drier btw.

Amounts Image 2: Rainfall through Sunday PM, we will see generally 1-2 inches along the high mountains, and in Central and Northern NC. At this point, we're not expecting much flooding; we would only see some if a storm trains over the same area. Most of these areas desperately need the rain. 2-4 inches in the orange-area parts of the mountians/foothills and then coastal areas. Along the coast, the front could enhance rain at times, so we could see some bursts of heavy rainfall. Across the Foothills and Blue Ridge Escarpment, we could see some localized flooding in flood-prone areas if heavier rain sets up, so we will watch it. The rainfall forecast is still fluid, and with any tropical system can change, so stay tuned and don't take it literally this is using my best knowledge of the setup and models to make this.

Wind: Winds will really not be a concern but some gusty winds of 20-35MPH are possible with up to 45MPH in the mountians, maybe a couple of isolated outages in the mountians but I am really not concerned about this.

Tornado Threat: Given that NC is on the right side of the storm, and high wind shear is around, especially late Saturday into Sunday, we could see a low-end tornado threat develop in parts of Eastern/Central NC late Saturday night into Sunday, but the threat is fluid and not a certainty right now. So, stay tuned; overall, it looks pretty low. I'm watching, of course.

😎The Bottom Line: The world is not ending; we will be just fine. Minimal overall impact: This system is moving fast and isn't a repeat of Helene; the weekend won't be a washout and will feature plenty of dry time, including a trending-dry race in Charlotte. Rainfall: Expect 1 to 2 inches of rain across central and northern areas, and 2 to 4 inches in the mountains, foothills, and coast, bringing mostly beneficial moisture but a localized risk of flooding in vulnerable spots. Minor Wind & Low Tornado Risk: Sustained winds and gusts (20–35 MPH, up to 45 MPH in the mountains) are mostly a minor nuisance, though a low-end, highly fluid tornado threat will be monitored across Eastern and Central NC late Saturday night into Sunday. Stay tuned on that. This is the forecast as I see it now, but remember it is a science and things can and will change, so I'll do my best to keep you posted!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Tropical Storm Erin forms in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean, just watching for now.

Ethan Clark

Aug 11, 2025

2 min read

Tropical Storm Erin: As of this morning, satellite data indicates that Tropical Storm Erin has officially developed, about 280 miles WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center has officially started to issue cones on the system. The official cone on the system is below from the National Hurricane Center. I have just coded it into my graphics system, so there is Tropical Storm Erin. It is forecasted to become a Hurricane this week, and a major Hurricane Category 3 with winds of 115MPH by the weekend.

Models are generally in agreement that the system will be guided by a ridge of high pressure to the west over the next 5-7 days, but after that the picture is not 100% and that is to be expected with a developing system and with many days ahead to watch it.

📌As of now, the setup shows the system will either recurve out to sea in the breakness of the ridge or the ridge could close, and the high pressure pushes the system further west towards the East Coast of the United States. I don't think we can compeltly write off the system for United States/NC impacts, but the trends as of now are in our favor and most models send this out to sea and bring some increased Surf/Rip Currents to NC, but with the system still being 10+ days away no one can tell you with confidence that will happen. That is why the official forecast cone is only out 5 days; we will keep watching it for now, but it does not pose an immediate threat. I hope by late week we will have enough confidence in the forecast to determine if it'll definitely miss the East Coast of the US, as the current forecast suggests.

😎Bottom Line: There is no tropical threat to NC over the next 8 days, after that we will keep an eye out, but nothing to worry about or panic about right now. Keep an eye on the forecast, I will update daily on this system until we are confident it is heading out to sea. The only thing you can do right now is make sure you have your hurricane plans in place, and they are ready to activate, because well, it is hurricane season, and we should be ready regardless of the forecast. Also, please don't fall for scary posts and hype for something that is at most 10+ days away.

-Ethan