Tropical Storm Erin forms in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean, just watching for now.

Tropical Storm Erin: As of this morning, satellite data indicates that Tropical Storm Erin has officially developed, about 280 miles WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center has officially started to issue cones on the system. The official cone on the system is below from the National Hurricane Center. I have just coded it into my graphics system, so there is Tropical Storm Erin. It is forecasted to become a Hurricane this week, and a major Hurricane Category 3 with winds of 115MPH by the weekend.

Models are generally in agreement that the system will be guided by a ridge of high pressure to the west over the next 5-7 days, but after that the picture is not 100% and that is to be expected with a developing system and with many days ahead to watch it.

📌As of now, the setup shows the system will either recurve out to sea in the breakness of the ridge or the ridge could close, and the high pressure pushes the system further west towards the East Coast of the United States. I don't think we can compeltly write off the system for United States/NC impacts, but the trends as of now are in our favor and most models send this out to sea and bring some increased Surf/Rip Currents to NC, but with the system still being 10+ days away no one can tell you with confidence that will happen. That is why the official forecast cone is only out 5 days; we will keep watching it for now, but it does not pose an immediate threat. I hope by late week we will have enough confidence in the forecast to determine if it'll definitely miss the East Coast of the US, as the current forecast suggests.

😎Bottom Line: There is no tropical threat to NC over the next 8 days, after that we will keep an eye out, but nothing to worry about or panic about right now. Keep an eye on the forecast, I will update daily on this system until we are confident it is heading out to sea. The only thing you can do right now is make sure you have your hurricane plans in place, and they are ready to activate, because well, it is hurricane season, and we should be ready regardless of the forecast. Also, please don't fall for scary posts and hype for something that is at most 10+ days away.

-Ethan