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Tropical Development Possible East of the North Carolina Coast: High Surf and Rip Currents Possible

Tropical Update: Looking over the newest model runs this afternoon, the European Ensembles are starting to suggest the chances of a Tropical Depression Delvoping off the NC coast over the next 72 hours are increasing. The latest Spaghetti models (also called spaghetti plots) are the nickname given to the computer models that show potential tropical cyclone paths. These show that the system will pass to the east of the North Carolina coast over the next 72 hours; based on the current modeling, the only impact on North Carolina will be increased surf and rip currents through Sunday. We will be just fine with this system.

As we're heading into the tropical season, I thought I would give you a quick refresher on Ensembles. Ensemble forecasting is a method used in Numerical Weather Prediction; instead of one run of the atmospheric conditions, ensembles are run with slightly different starting conditions. Multiple simulations are run, each with a slight variation of its initial conditions and with slightly perturbed weather models. These variations represent the inevitable uncertainty in the initial conditions and approximations in the models. Ensemble forecasting is very helpful, and you can take the averages and see the outliers to understand, how you should best create a forecast.

I'll keep you posted if anything changes with the forecast regarding Invest 90L along the Florida coastline.



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