Our weather pattern is about to change dramatically. First, we will have a strong cold front move through Thursday (Halloween) followed by the cold front the temperatures will crash. We will have the chance of Severe Weather for parts of the state on Thursday, the greatest chance will be mainly from Greensboro and Charlotte west based on the current timing. Wednesday we will see scattered showers with the heaviest rain in the mountains and foothills.
COLD FRONT: A strong pattern changing cold front will move into the state on Thursday, while we usually see Severe Weather with cold fronts in the spring we can also see Severe Weather in the fall and winter. The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas from Raleigh west under a level 1/5 risk. I know many people are going to be involved in Halloween activities. Lots of pages across the state are already jumping on the potential of damaging winds and tornadoes. The timing of the front is key to the threat of severe weather on Thursday. For now, the danger appears to be highest from Greensboro and Charlotte west into the mountains. A few of the models have been showing significant severe weather, while many have not. Right now, The Storm Prediction has a level 1/5 risk from Raleigh west. We will continue to watch trends in the models over the next day, I'll have a full update in the morning if needed 10.30. There is no reason to panic, don't fall for the hype!
Halloween Forecast: The timing of the cold front is critical to the Halloween forecast. Right now, the timing of the front looks problematic for the Mountains and Foothills. The Triad, Central, and Eastern/Coastal look to escape rain chances until after 9PM. Charlotte, Mountains, and Foothills will likely have the chance to see showers and even thunderstorms during the time of trick or treating. The timing of the front is critical; we are still about 72 hours away any little movement slower or faster has hudge impacts regarding timing for NC. Temperatures will be nice and warm in the 60s and 70s!
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING Feels like just yesterday we were talking about drought now we are worried about Flash Flooding. Models are showing the potential for significant rainfall in the mountains. Rounds of rain starting Wednesday and lasting through Thursday night will bring heavy rain. 2-3" looks like a good bet with higher amounts along the Blue Ridge Escarpment, areas just east of the mountains in the valleys, here's where the best chance of some Flash Flooding will be possible.
Here's a look at projected rainfall amounts from The Weather Prediction Center
COLD WEATHER: No matter when the cold front arrives all signs point toward a major pattern change starting end of the week. We will likely see highs in the 50s and 60s statewide on Saturday and Sunday, lows below freezing in the mountains and 30s/40s elsewhere. The growing season in the mountains will likely end and in parts of the Foothills and Piedmont, the cooler weather looks to stay around as well.
Here's a look at low temperatures for Saturday night into Sunday morning.
GFS model (Weathermodels) Euro about the same.
The coldest night statewide looks to be Sunday night into Monday morning, widespread Freeze will be possible across a good portion of the state.
GFS Model (Weathermodels)
Stay tuned for updates as the weather will remain very busy, Stay tuned to North Carolina's Weather Authority Facebook page for more updates this week!