Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday which could result and localized Flash flooding.

Ethan Clark

May 26

1 min read

The risk of heavy downpours and some localized Flash Flooding is back today for parts of the state. It is hot and humid! As we continue to have heating and a very saturated atmosphere, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop once again today. We know there will be a burst of heavy rainfall and even the potential for some flash flooding, but with this setup and our tools today, we can't pinpoint exactly where the Flash Flooding or heavy rainfall will occur.

I've created a map in image 1 where I think the greatest risk of more localized/isolated Flash Flooding is this afternoon and evening. I am concerned about parts of the Foothills and Eastern Mountains (Blue Ridge Escarpment), if any more storms try to pass through these areas, we will see Flash Flooding again on roads and even small streams. Parts of Transylvania and Henderson County have seen over 6 inches of rain in the last 24 hours.

Scattered hit-or-miss storms will be around throughout the state into the evening, but we will watch for repeat storms that could cause flooding, especially west of Durham into the Foothills and Mountains. Yes, we have a drought in some areas, but some serious improvements have happened in parts. However, all this rain at once is bad. The ground is hard, and it just runs off.

Images 2-4 show the future radar. Don't take it literally, but you can see hit-or-miss stuff this afternoon and evening.