The Odds of a Significant Winter Storm to the Carolinas is Increasing

Winter Storm Update: Good late morning, everyone. I know there are more questions than answers right now! It is becoming increasingly clear that a significant Winter Storm will impact a large portion of North Carolina this weekend. The threat of accumulating snow and ice seems to be growing; the models remain weirdly confident that at least a significant Winter Storm will impact the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. I do not think this will be an all-snow event for most; there will be a mixed bag of precipitation despite what your apps are saying. I've spent most of the morning and late night looking through data and making a forecast. The goal is to not be first; it is to be accurate and help you prepare.

📌WHAT: A very strong Arctic Cold front is expected to move through the state on Friday night. Ahead of that, there could actually be some light rain/snow/sleet in parts of the state on Friday, but the main event looks to be Saturday evening into Monday morning. A parent high to the north of North Carolina will supply Arctic cold air that'll filter in this weekend, a key for winter weather in North Carolina. A low-pressure system will move across the Central US and the Gulf, and a second low will develop along the Carolina coast. This is all going to set the stage for a blockbuster Winter Storm. At this time, confidence continues to increase.

📌Forecast: We remain 4 days out from the start of the event, so no one has a clue how much snow and ice you'll actually see, but the potential is there for significant accumulation. I know we haven't had a major statewide Winter Storm in many years, but that could change this weekend.

So here are my favorite scenario maps, to be transparent with you and show the setup as it looks now.

Scenario 1️⃣: Starting sometime Saturday and lasting into prob late Sunday/Monday AM: A strong area of low pressure moves along the coast, and moisture overruns it into a below-freezing area most of the state. A lot starts as snow away from the coast, but then a warm nose aloft, which is warm air above your head, develops and becomes strong; as a result, we have a battleground for most of the state. This will mean switching between snow/sleet/ and Freezing rain (the worst). Significant accumulation would be possibe and in areas where more freezing rain occurs, power outages would be likely too. Northern NC would see mostly snow in the dark blue, with significant accumulation possible. A cold rain along the Outer Banks is likely, with some mixing. There are also some wildcards for other parts of the coastal areas that would be more of an ice-to-rain setup. We will fine-tune the immediate coastline in the coming days.

Scenario 2️⃣: Starting the same, the low is still strong a little further off the coast, and the warm nose is not as strong as a result; most of Central/Western NC gets an all-snow event with significant accumulation possible. Eastern/SE NC still see a mix of snow/sleet/ freezing rain and even plain rain along the Outer Banks and some of the other beaches. Power outages would still be a concern for sure, especially in pink.

Scenario 3️⃣: This is honestly the one with the lowest odds of happening, but given we're still 4 days out, and I've been around the block long enough to know things change. Models really underestimated the high to the north, and the low is further inland, bringing lower impacts from rain/mix to Central and Eastern, and a more icy setup for the Western half of the state. This would be an overall lower-impact setup with lower moisture. Most models do not have this, but I don't want to completely write it off.

😎 The Bottom Line: We're still 36-72 hours away before we can start to really nail down how much snow/ice everyone sees, but the one thing I can say with my over a decade in weather forecasting across this state. The signal for a significant event is there over 4 days away with moderate to high confidence that it is happening at this point. Don't get caught up in pretty snow; there's potential for a significant ice storm in parts of the state. I would be shocked if most of the state sees a pretty long snowfall the whole time. I think there will be a lot of mixing and make it icy like normal. Unlike normal, bitterly cold air is likely from this weekend through early next work week, so stuff that falls is staying around, and the cold could be dangerous.

-So Ethan, what do I do now? I would start making plans for Winter Weather impacts this weekend, prepare for extended travel problems starting sometime Saturday for most and lasting well into next week. Know Your Heat Source: If you lose power, how are you staying warm? If you have a fireplace or wood stove, make sure you have dry wood ready. Never use a gas oven or stove to heat your house; that’s a carbon monoxide risk. Don't raid the grocery stores. There is no reason to panic if we're prepared; we will be just fine.

Watchout for hype and scary models being posted. Yes, the potential is there, but some of the stuff being posted, folks haven’t even looked to see if the output is even able. There is more to the models than just snow/ice maps.

- I know folks want more, but I can't, with confidence or even smart, give you exact amounts right now. We will be watching the trends and will release snow/ice maps when I think it is reasonably appropriate. I'll be providing as many updates as possible over the coming days. I've cleared my schedule and will tell you how it is. I will do my best to provide an accurate forecast that won't let you down.

-Ethan