Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Quiet weather this weekend followed by the risk of strong to severe stones Monday. Everything you need to know!

ncwxauthority

Mar 13

2 min read

Weekend Headlines & Potentially Severe Weather on Monday Update: It's almost the weekend, so let's look ahead at the headlines for this weekend into early next week. Yes, I am aware of the potential for Severe Weather on Monday. Folks were asking me about this before yesterday's risk was even over.

-It is much cooler today, but a nice day. Saturday will feature partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the 60s and low 70s, a very nice spring day! Great for any St Patrick activities you might be participating in or whatever else you have planned for your Saturday.

-Sunday: Clouds will increase with partly sunny skies and highs in the 60s and low 70s, a couple of showers are possible along the eastern parts of the state on Sunday. Will watch that.

⛈️ Monday: There is a strong cold front that'll approach the state with very warm and moist air expected ahead of it. Attached to it will be a strong, negatively tilted, low-pressure system to our north, and strong upper-level winds that will combine with CAPE (thunderstorm fuel) to produce strong to severe storms across the state on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed most of Central and Eastern NC (image 2) under a level 2/5 and 3/5 risk ahead of this, but it is not a slam dunk. Clouds could limit the risk, and or the front speeds up, so at this point we're just watching, but the risk is there as of now. Damaging winds would be the favored risk, but there could be a tornado threat worth watching.

Yes, I know peoeple nerves are high but remember most will not see the severe storms even with a high risk. The potential is there, but there is no reason to panic. Make sure you have plans in place in case severe weather occurs, and you know how you and your family will stay safe. This weekend is a good time to update that stuff, even if this system does not happen it is severe weather season so it is better to be safe and prepared then rushing around right before.

-I'll keep you posted with down-to-earth updates, and not scare you, tell you what it really is! I'll have more updates later this week, especially on Sunday, as we get closer and if the risk is still there. Have a good weekend!

Ethan