Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Rain chances return for the first time in 20 days!

Ethan Clark

Apr 24

1 min read

🌧️ Did someone do the rain dance? For the first time in over 20 days, I am forecasting scattered rain showers and even a thunderstorm chance Saturday PM into Sunday morning across the state. So what's the deal on Saturday? Most areas start off dry; in fact, most of the day should be dry. A cold front will move across the state Saturday PM into Sunday morning! It'll spark scattered showers and thunderstorms across the state, moving from west to east. The showers and even a thunderstorm will be hit-or-miss, but some spots could get a nice burst of rain Saturday Night into Sunday. No washout, but be on the lookout for scattered showers and even a thunderstorm around. Severe weather is not likely!

The rainfall amounts won't be all that impressive, and in fact, it won't be even across the state as it is scattered, so some folks will see a nice rain generally less than an inch, while others will see little to nothing. That's just how it goes, folks. So if you have late outdoor/Saturday night plans be prepared to potentially see passing showers or even a storm especially Central and Western areas with the Eastern sections of the state best chance overnight Saturday into Sunday morning!

Everything clears out mid-morning Sunday, and we will turn cooler and drier! Below is a look at a few future radar times. Don't take it literally, but it gives you a good idea of how it'll be scattered in nature! I'll pass along some radar updates at times!

-Ethan

Mountains

Raleigh area

Rain chances return for the first time in 20 days!

Recent Posts

Comments

Don't Miss a Forecast

​

Mountains

Raleigh area

Comments

Don't Miss a Forecast