top of page

​

Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Tranquil weather turning warmer followed by finally some more active weather?

I'm back with your favorite weather headlines, and our weather over the next few days will be pretty tranquil.


Tuesday will be the coolest of the next 5 days, with highs in the 60s and low 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies.


Wednesday-Friday: We will see summer-like temps, highs in the 80s to even some spots in the low 90s by the end of the week.


The North Carolina Weekend: A cold front approaches by Saturday afternoon and evening, and it could spark a couple of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the state Saturday PM/evening. Looks to be hit-or-miss, so some folks might see rain/storm, while others might not.


Sunday looks to be cooler with maybe a couple of scattered showers or even a thunderstorm around, but overall still not that much moisture.


Will fine-tune as we get closer later this week!

Next week looks cooler, but there are some signs of at least some limited rain chances/storms around, so we will watch! At this point, we will take anything we can get.


Wildfire Risk: Drought and wildfire risk will continue to deteriorate across the state over the next few days, with dry weather likely until at least Saturday for most areas, and possibly longer in some spots! Please do not burn!


-Ethan

 
 
 

Comments

Don't Miss a Forecast

Subscribe to emails so you don't miss a thing!

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Instagram

Thanks for subscribing!

bottom of page