• ncwxauthority

THE CHANCES OF SEEING SNOW FALLING FROM THE SKY HAS INCREASED

There’s the potential for winter weather across the state on Thursday/Friday, in fact, the chances of seeing snow falling from the sky have increased. It is not a slam dunk; the forecast is up in the air, and we will not be able to nail down amounts until closer to the event. I will provide an update regarding the solutions and where the best chance to see snow is, also, why you don't need to raid the stores yet!


WHAT: A developing coastal low will impact the state on Thursday the exact location of the low to the coast will affect who sees what. Forecasting snow is a science, and in NC it is hard to see snow; below is a map based on many things. The map below shows the best chance of seeing snow fall from the sky, not accumulating; we will talk about that tomorrow. This map is based on the ensembles (many different solutions variations of the same model) and short-range models. Right now, the favored locations to see snow falling from the sky will be Raleigh and points east. The trend today has been north and west, so Durham west, we will watch it closely.


Here’s a look at the solutions that all the models agree with. Solution 1 “snow lovers want this” the low-pressure system develops and rides very close to the coast, this would spread moisture inland, and we could see some or a rain/snow mix. Another question to this solution is how much cold air we see. Solution 2, the low-pressure system develops and pushes away from the coast and only along the i95 corridor would see some winter weather.



WHICH SOLUTION: The favored solution would be along solution 1 bring some impacts to the state. However, the models remain fluid, and I’m not convinced yet. Another thing involved in the forecast is how the energy impacts our western mountains. Again, all of this is very fluid and not set in stone. I would give it a 50/50 chance.


AMOUNTS: I know the real answer everyone wants to know is how much snow/ ice will come down. Be patient here, with it being 4+ days away and major different solutions among models. I can't simply sit here and competently put out a snowfall map, while other news stations and pages are that's just throwing a bunch of numbers on a map and calling it a day essentially.


FORECAST TIMING:

Here’s a guideline of our forecast:

Today- make or break day

Tuesday PM- First Call Snowfall map?

Wednesday Second or maybe third call, everyone panics lol

Thursday - Final call Thursday Night- Event begins..


DON’T PANIC: Despite some of the other pages calling out major impacts and notices to prepare now, we are not looking that in fact, only about 15% or less of that happening right now. Please stay with trusted sources over the next few pages; people who make you pay for the forecasts are desperate for “clicks.”

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