Still monitoring the tropics and any potential impacts.

Tropical Depression 9 Update: Good afternoon, everyone. Here's my latest update on what is now Tropical Depression 9. What a forecast this has been, and we're far from done. There have been some trends today that I like, especially overnight and this morning. Let me explain my thoughts. Thanks for hanging in there, folks. This is why I don't rush to conclusions and post 5,000 things and different models all day. This is a very very complicated forecast, and even the best of the best models will likely still be wrong. We seem to be moving more slowly toward a solution, but (like watching paint dry), the pattern remains increasingly complex, so it's not a slam dunk, and there is still potential for a miss. However, the trend over the last 24 hours suggests not a direct hit. However, a stall or close to the coast is still possible.

📌 Tropical Depression 9: Well, we finally have almost a closed circulation about 120 miles SSW of the Central Bahamas so now it is Tropical Depression 9. So, this is a big thing for us, we've made it a long way with a closed circluation. Over the next 12-24 hours, we will hopefully see the models come to their consensus.

📌 The trend today has been towards the better-case scenario. Why? Well, Humberto is much stronger and, as a result, is trying to have more influence on Tropical Depression 9. However, there is still considerable uncertainty about how strong the upper-level low and the system work west. Trends today are looking better, but the confidence is not high yet. I've seen models quickly switch back before in this setup, so let's take a slow cation.

🟢Track 2 (Image 2) (Best Case Scenario): TD9 is slower, and Humberto beats TD9 North, and then the upper-level low backs off, and a closer interaction with Humberto forces the system to make an abrupt turn out to sea, falling the system out to sea. Humberto is stronger too, this is what we're seeing in the models. Some models are now showing a clean curve out to sea others take it away from the coast at first, but linger it. This is the best-case scenario. I am calling it that because we will still see High Surf and Rip Currents, and we could also see some rain and gusty winds along the coast, depending on how close it is.

🔴Track 1: (Worst Case Scenario) TD9 is faster and moves into the southern Atlantic and then heads north. As a result, the upper-level low (An upper-level low will be over the Southeast United States this weekend and early next week, bringing our increased rain/storm chances). Upper-level lows are notoriously difficult to forecast; they can last longer than expected, move out faster, or be much weaker, and models struggle to predict them accurately.) Pulls the system further into the coast. Over the last 12 hours many models have trended away from this, and have suggested less likely. However, there are still some models that are showing a stall or even landfall along the coast.

-This would be the worst-case scenario impacts to the Carolinas, with the tropical impacts, it could be a Hurricane or just a Tropical Storm. However, models have trended away from this today but not 100% confident. There are also many questions about the strength. We don't want this, and models have trended away from this. How strong most models have it as a strong Tropical Storm to a low-grade hurricane. We will still have to watch becuase models could trend back, it seems if this happens, it would be more so a Eastern/Coastal NC/SC setup with limited impacts for Western North Carolina!

The Bottom Line: The storm is now in the Bahamas and near Cuba, and it remains quite disorganized, but now that we have a closed center. So, we can't lock in a solution yet, but the signs this morning are promising, so I hope the models hold over the next 12-24 hours. So Ethan, but we could have impacts as soon as Monday night? Well, if you're along the coast, I would make some plans and prepare for potential impacts, but there's no reason to panic. Better to be prepared rather than surprised. I like to be fully transparent and that's why for the last few days I've been showing you the options and possible tracks it could go. I want everyone to know both worst-case and best-case scenarios.

The areas to watch for now are mainly along the coast into South Carolina coast and parts of Eastern NC. Western NC/parts of Central NC just stay aware, but right now nothing looks too concerning at this point. However, the forecast is not fully set in stone yet. I hope this helps. I am sorry this is such a painful and long/drawn-out forecast. There are too many factors, and confidence is not high in any solution; we're in uncharted territory. I am watching closely, and will be as transparent as possible. My hope is that tomorrow morning we can lock in the full forecast for sure, and I'll be able to post specific potential impacts.

-Ethan