Snow update, we're still on track for some snow across a portion of the state. I've updated totals just ever slightly. Here's my final call snow map, some will wake up with white ground others will wake up with mud. Conditions appear favorable for a few hours of snow tonight into early morning hours; I know you've seen some interesting snow totals. Remember, there are many factors to forecasting snow other than the models. How is the setup, do we support snow in NC for this setup. Here's my thinking on my final call snow map; this is definitely not a slam dunk; we all know how snow works in NC. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from Greensboro north and west-east and from Raleigh north/east/west for tonight through Thursday morning. A few roads could be slushy or even snow-covered if snow rates are high enough.
Remember, the snow will fall overnight into the early morning, so if you don't look, you might miss it. Ground temperatures are warm, so lots and lots of melting expected.
Conditions appear to be coming together to see snow for some tonight into Thursday morning for some, I'm getting more hopeful and excited. There's a chance of seeing some snow fall from the sky Wednesday night into early Thursday across a portion of the state; chances are looking pretty good across the mountains above 3,500ft. The chances are also pretty good to see at least snow falling from Raleigh, and Greensboro north/east/west. This type of setup is not ideal for snow in NC, but I think there's at least some potential for snow. As I try to further convey the forecast by using science and data, due to the uncertainty with the forecasts, I'm trying something new.
FORECAST: Forecasting weather is a science; it is data and models that are not perfect; it will change, I can tell you that. Nothing, I mean nothing, is a guarantee with winter weather until it happens, even if the forecast looks perfect. What do we have? We have a developing low pressure that will move across the state Wednesday night; as the cold air moves in, the rain could change to snow late Wednesday into early Thursday.
Factors against snow: -Limited moisture on the models -Quick moving system -Snow rates don't appear to be too heavy -Ground temperatures mainly above freezing outside of the mountains -That being said, there's still a chance of some snow.
BREAKDOWN:
Map should say 2021
Accumulation, if any, will mainly be on elevated surfaces and grassy surfaces for areas outside of the mountains. If it comes down hard, a few roads could be snow-covered Thursday morning, so be careful. I think some fun in the sun for sure.
Dark Blue (Upper Mountains mainly above 3,500ft) Rain should change over to snow as a northwest snow kicks in not directly related to the low pressure but with the cold front. A few inches of snow possible, the valleys and Foothills not looking good for you. Roads could be slick.
(Light Blue Area) Battleground as usual. Rain will begin Wednesday evening; it should stay rain until around 11PM Wednesday or early morning Thursday before it is forecasted to change over to snow, especially north on the map. As the forecast has a high uncertainty, here's where I decided to go with more data. My official forecast for this area is .50 to 2" as of right about a 50% chance of this happening. The Boom Forecast (High End) if everything over-performs 3-5" chances of this happening are about 30%. The bust forecast=Zip nothing that's always a chance about a 20%. The best timing for snow is between 12AM-5AM roads should stay fine, but if snow rates change or higher-end snow, we could see some impacts for sure.
(Purple) North and East of Raleigh and Greensboro, here's where I think the best chance for a 2-4" in spots will be possible on the current forecast. The chances of this happening are 50%. Boom: 4-6" 30% Bust: Nothing 20%
(Pink) Sandhills to parts of Eastern NC, this area has the highest questions, but I think the rain should change over to snow early Thursday the best forecast is flakes-.50" that's about a 50% chance, a Boom: 1-2" 20%, and a bust is zip=zero 30% of this happening.
(Green) Mainly another cold rain on the current forecast, sorry if you want snow. I can't rule out some lucky ones seeing a quick snow change over, especially north. We will watch the trends. Word of notice snow happens unevenly just like everything else, just down the street could have snow while 5 miles away may have nothing. So don't bank on anything; just take a rough estimate.
Timing: The best chance to see snow will be between 12AM Thursday and about 6AM Thursday in the areas forecasted, so most will not even see it fall, and if it does not stick, you will be like what happened.
What should you do? Don't panic, be prepared for at least some snow in the areas that are forecasted. Whatever does fall should quickly melt as the sun will come up; it could completely bust, so don't go crazy if you get nothing and are forecasted to get more. I'm just the messenger; it is NC prepare for disappointment with snow. I did try to convey all the possible scenarios, so you're not caught off guard.