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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

SNOW AND SLEET POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT

Snow and sleet have already started across the mountains, accumulations are possible here. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Mountains and adjacent Foothills, a possible brief changeover to snow could happen across Central NC later this afternoon (Don't get your hopes up). Record Cold is expected behind the front tonight and Wednesday.

MOUNTAINS: Accumulating snow likely for the mountains, as a strong arctic cold front moves in it will bring some snow to the Mountains and adjacent Foothills on Tuesday. Everyone in the Mountains will start as rain and then transition to snow by mid-morning. Gusty winds will help drive a northwest snow event by afternoon and evening. Accumulation will be light, mostly confined to elevations above 3,500ft and the smokies/ high country boarding Tennessee. 1-3 inches possible along the TN/NC border with more elevated amounts (2/4") on the highest peaks (Grandfather, Mount Mitchell, and the Smokies) Flakes to up to a 1-2 likely elsewhere from Asheville to Boone.


The first Winter Weather Advisory of the 2019-2020 snow season has been issued image 3, the following counties are under a Winter Weather Advisory: Alleghany-Ashe-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- Watauga.



IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions developing by late Tuesday morning, and possibly lasting into Wednesday morning in some areas. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes.

CENTRAL NC

Mostly rain is expected over the Triad and Central NC, but a change over to snow for a brief period of time is possible to about Raleigh. Anafront is when a very Arctic air mass arrives, which is a specific type of a cold front; this type of system is tough to forecast. When the cold air catches the snow it is extremely hard to figure out. This type of event will not bring significant snowfall to Central NC; you need the cold air in place first. Tomorrow we will not have cold air in place first. Cold air mass starts to undercut the precipitation just enough to turn it into the snow at the very end of the precipitation passage; this is very hard to do. These events usually don't work; however, the rain could change over to snow for a short period in the red hatched box. At best some minor accumulations on the grass.


Here's a look at the timing of the "possible changeover" don't get your hopes up outside the mountains.


I'll have more updates on Facebook, Stay tuned for updates on North Carolina's Weather Authority Facebook throughout the week and beyond! Thanks for the support!

 
 
 

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