SNOW AND ICE THREAT INCREASING
Winter Storm threat increasing for some parts of NC, the potential for snow and ice has increased throughout the week. Lots of questions if this storm will be the same as the December storm? No one storm is the same so it will not be the same, will have the same trends. Lots of hype regarding this storm before I get started, models are changing each run and no one really knows exactly how it will set up yet.
WHAT: Cold air will move into NC Thursday and Friday setting up for Winter Weather this weekend, if you are reading from the coast or eastern NC snowfall is not expected another cold rain event is expected. Just thought I would say that now so you don't have to read through it. One thing you need to have a good snowstorm is cold air in place first, we will have that but lots of other things come into play. The real unknowns per usual start. The exact track of the low? Is there two or one low pressure? How much moisture? Rain/snow line location? All of these questions will be ironed out in the coming days.
Below is my first guess based on a verity of models of where snow, sleet mix or just rain will fall. I feel pretty confident that accumulating snow will fall from Greensboro and points west. East of Greensboro will be a battle ground of snow, sleet, and freezing rain and just plain rain. East of Raleigh will be mostly rain. The Triangle and points east, models remain very unsure exactly how the rain/snow line will set up or occur, some areas could see plain rain or snow. East of i95 sorry looks to be just plain old rain. This can change over the next few days as of right now this is the best map.
TIMING- Precipitation moves in Saturday afternoon and evening, event lasts through the day Sunday ending by evening hours.
The trends for today among the models have been a North and West movement of the low pressure system. Wintery weather looks possible, but the types and amounts are still up in the air. Pages posting snowfall maps and models are just trying to get likes and clicks, major news channels across the state are also doing that. Don't fall for hype most winter storms in NC change before they actually occur, number 1 rule 3 days out usually the most accurate.
Important to remember, that small differences in the storm track make a huge difference. Track 3 along the coast favor snow for everyone west of the track. Track 1 (inland track) favors rain for most of everyone but the mountains. The track between (Green-White) favor an icy mix mess for Triad and foothills, while mountains see a beautiful snow and triangle sees a cold rain with points to the east.
Many ingredients are coming together will ultimately impact our storm. The questions, of course, are what track will it take, how much cold air is available, what type or types of precipitation will we see, and how much. These details will be tough to nail down until we get a little closer. Let me remind you, many snowfall amounts maps are being rapidly shared. Snowfall maps greater than 3 days out are simply wrong, no one knows how much snow or ice will fall yet. Thursday short range models come into play which will give us a better idea.
HOW MUCH: I know the real answer everyone wants to know is how much snow/ ice will come down. Be patient here, with it being 4+ days away and different solutions among models. Lots of time to go and lots will change, no real to panic or freak out, this system is very complex and changing thus no reason to hype it. Stay tuned for more updates throughout the week you can also message our facebook page too!