Significant Winter Storm expected to a good portion of North Carolina, increasing risk of Sleet and Freezing Rain

Winter Storm Update: Good Thursday Morning, here's my latest thinking on the incoming Winter Storm across most of the state. Confidence continues to increase, which will see a significant winter storm that will bring high impacts to a good portion of Central and Western North Carolina, leading to hazardous travel and the potential of power outages where the heaviest ice accrual occurs. Very Cold Weather from gusty winds Monday night into Tuesday could occur, potentially resulting in hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not taken, especially for folks without power. I've spent a couple of hours this morning working on the forecast and reviewing the data. Here's everything you need to know as of now. There is no need for mass panic or doomsday thinking. We will get through this together. Cheer for more sleet and less moisture to lower the risk of power outages.

WHAT: This is not a snow event; very little snow is expected for most of the state. Unfortunately, this is an Ice Storm, but how much sleet or Freezing Rain everyone sees is still up for debate. Sleet is better and doesn’t cause power outages. Freezing Rain can cause widespread, long-lasting power outages, which I think part of the state could see. A very strong Arctic Cold front is expected to move through the state on Friday night. Ahead of that, there could actually be some light rain in parts of the state on Friday, but the main event looks to be Saturday evening into Monday morning. A parent high to the north of North Carolina will supply Arctic cold air that'll filter in this weekend, a key for winter weather in North Carolina. A low-pressure system will move across the Central US and the Gulf, and a second low will develop along the Carolina coast. This is all going to set the stage for a blockbuster Winter Storm. At this time, confidence continues to increase. However, I remain questionable exact amounts of everything, so I'll hold off posting exact amounts for a little bit longer.

⏰ Timing: The greatest impacts will be Saturday night into Monday for the precipitation, but travel and power outages could extend several days beyond Monday, thanks to extended cold, especially in the red areas on the maps below.

📌Forecast: We still remain 2-3 days out from the start of the event, and with two pieces of energy, one across Baja California and another piece dropping over Central Alberta, how these come together will give us an idea of how bad the freezing rain/sleet will actually be. Everyone is praying for sleet and not freezing rain.

WHAT FALLS ( Image 1): The Dark Pink will be nearly all areas from I-95 west to the mountains, this is the Battleground Zone, thanks to the later onset of moisture, it allows warm nose aloft, which is warm air above your head, to develop and becomes strong; as a result, we have a battleground for most of the state. A burst of snow is possible mainly NW in the Dark Pink Area with some accumulation possible everyone else will see little to no snow. Sleet and Freezing Rain will be the main P-type across this area. In the hattched area, there is potential for significant icing that could lead to scattered to numerous power outages, particularly in the most Freezing Rain setups. We should be able to fine-tune that over the coming 24 hours or so.

LIGHT PINK: A light glaze or even some sleet is possible Saturday night into Sunday morning, before likely turning to mostly plain rain; some travel impacts are possible.

GREEN: Along the coast, this will be a mainly plain rain event, but some light sleet or Freezing Rain can't be completely ruled out; the dominant P-type will just be rain. Little to no impacts expected.

TRAVEL: (Image 2) There is a High Risk to Travel in the Dark Red mainly all over Central and Western NC, starting Saturday night and lasting into early next week. Sleet is very hard to drive on: Imagine driving on a road covered in millions of tiny ball bearings or marbles. Your tires lose grip, making it easy to slide, especially on turns or hills. Freezing Rain is like driving on a skating rink. Impossible and catastrophic.

A minor to Moderate Travel problem is possible Saturday night into Sunday across parts of the light orange and Further East in Eastern NC.

-So Ethan, what do I do now? I would start making plans for Winter Weather impacts this weekend and prepare for extended travel problems starting late Saturday for most and lasting well into next week. Long-Lasting Power Outages are possible. Know Your Heat Source: If you lose power, how are you staying warm? If you have a fireplace or wood stove, make sure you have dry wood ready. Never use a gas oven or stove to heat your house; that’s a carbon monoxide risk. Don't raid the grocery stores. There is no reason to panic if we're prepared; we will be just fine.

😎The Bottom Line: Confidence is increasing for a significant winter storm across Central and Western NC, bringing hazardous travel and the potential for power outages due to significant icing. This will be primarily a sleet and freezing rain event not a snowstorm, with the heaviest impacts expected in the "battleground" zone from I-95 westward. Conditions will deteriorate Saturday evening through Monday morning, but travel disruptions could last well into next week due to the bitter cold following the storm. Now is the time to finalize preparations for extended travel problems and potential power loss (some long-lasting), make sure you have a safe emergency heat source ready. Weather Forecast is science and things will still change, we're still watching for changes in the forecast how much sleet/Freezing Rain we see.

I'll have more thoughts on this throughout the day and, of course once it starts, but now is the time to prepare for impacts to your daily life this weekend into early next week. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued from basically I-95 West to the Mountains by the National Weather Service.

-Ethan