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SIGNIFICANT ICE THREAT TRIAD POINTS WEST

Winter storm threat moves back in this weekend for the first time in 2019, by no means will this storm be the same as the less. Ice has become a huge concern for this storm, snowfall amounts will generally be low. A wintery weekend is ahead for haft of NC while the other haft will see a cold rain instead. Here's the latest update with First call snow and ice maps below.


WHAT: Monday evening brought to you the possibility of a winter storm impacting the state this weekend, warned you to stay aware but not to buy into the hype. We are now less than 3 days away from the event arriving, models have become pretty well organized now. The trend has been for a warmer and northern movement of the storm system thus sending the frozen precipitation with it. Small shifts in the track mean big differences between snow and ice. Over the past two days the trend has been north and west, expect frozen precipitation to be from i85 north and west. The storm will move into the state midday Saturday clouds will move in first then comes in the precipitation. Should start as snow from the Triad west many areas will see light accumulations of snowfall the mountains and foothills will see a couple inches of snow. By Sunday early morning warm air aloft will move in changing most of the snow over to freezing rain, the main question is how far north and west does the warm air make it? Many of the models change over the freezing rain/ sleet over to plain rain as far west as Greensboro. I do know from past storms models do really bad with our cold air wedge events. So tonight the thinking is a significant ice threat for the Triad, Yadkin Valley, and Foothills possibly into the Mountains


MAPS: Below is our first call snowfall map, sorry snow lovers this time around snowfall is going to be very light don't worry we have plenty of winter left.

Gray: (Trace-.50") Here light snow will fall Saturday overnight before changing over to sleet and ice

Light Blue: (1-2") Here expect some snow to fall overnight on Saturday most likely 1-2" of snow, before changing over to sleet and freezing rain. Areas are the Foothills, Yadkin Valley, and into Asheville

Blue: (2-3") The lower elevations mountains below 2,500ft into the foothills, a light to moderate snowfall mixed with sleet is expected. Freezing rain will also mix in at some point on Sunday.

Purple (4-6") The real winners for this snowstorm, a nice snowfall will fall in areas above 3,000ft including the High Country (Boone, Blowing Rock, Elk, Todd areas) some sleet and freezing rain could mix in.

Pink (6+) A very small part of the state above 5,000ft could see upwards of 6", that is the ski resorts and high Smokies and Appalachians.

There remains considerable uncertainty regarding snowfall so stay tuned for updates.


ICE: Many people underestimate the impacts of Freezing rain, over the past day models have been indicating a decent threat of ice. It takes very little ice to cause real problems normally 1/4 of an inch of ice starts to cause power outages and tree damage. It does appear that 1/4 inch of ice will be possible from the Triad to say Asheville. Areas in Pink will likely see just a glaze of ice. The models do a poor job forecasting temperatures and ice amounts 1-2 degrees warmer or colder make a huge difference when it comes to ice. So the goal is not to be caught off guard.

TIMING:

-Dry cold and sunny on Friday, dry though midday Saturday

-Precipitation moves in from west to east Saturday afternoon

- Starting as snow Saturday evening through early overnight hours in the Triad and Foothills

-Changes to freezing rain and sleet overnight Saturday into Sunday

-Sunday icy mess from Triad west with snow in the mountains (mixing)

-Cold rain Raleigh and points east





TRENDS: Starting now through the start of the storm trends will be watched regarding ice and snow, subtle changes in the track lead to changes here.


WHAT TO DO NOW: If you are from the Triad to the mountains start preparing for travel impacts and power outages.


Stay tuned for more updates, if you have any questions message the Facebook page

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