Severe Weather Update: Risk of strong to severe storms for parts of the state this evening and early tonight. Thursday (May 8th)

⛈️ Severe Weather Threat: There is a growing risk of strong to severe storms today, mainly from Raleigh and points west, with the highest threat areas across parts of Piedmont and Western NC. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2/5 risk for most of Western North Carolina to about Winston-Salem/Greensboro and a level 1 risk to about Raleigh/Greenville. Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into the late evening.

WHAT: A strong trough and cold front will approach the state tonight. Ahead of it, strong CAPE Convective Available Potential Energy, the amount of fuel available to a developing thunderstorm, will increase to 1000-2000 j/kg, and this activity will be assisted by 30- 40k wind shear aloft. Additionally, the freezing level will be rather low to 10k feet, so any storms that get going could produce large hail. The greatest ingredients for severe weather are across the Western/Piedmont.

⚠️ THREATS: A few strong to severe storms are likely across Western NC/ Foothills and moving into the Piedmont and parts of Central NC as nightfall. This will lead to some gusty to damaging wind gusts, and some large hail is likely due to low freezing levels. An isolated tornado threat does exist west, but the threat is overall very low. As we’ve learned, we can’t say it is not completely 0, though.

👀 Bottom Line: A few strong to severe storms are likely this afternoon through tonight, especially west of Raleigh, bringing threats of damaging winds, large hail, and a low, but non-zero tornado risk. Western and Piedmont NC face the most significant risk, so stay weather-aware. If you have a garage, move your cars inside this evening for extra protection from hail. I'll pass along radar updates like normal.