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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Severe Weather Update: Risk of strong to severe storms for parts of the state this evening and early tonight. Thursday (May 8th)

⛈️ Severe Weather Threat: There is a growing risk of strong to severe storms today, mainly from Raleigh and points west, with the highest threat areas across parts of Piedmont and Western NC. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2/5 risk for most of Western North Carolina to about Winston-Salem/Greensboro and a level 1 risk to about Raleigh/Greenville. Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into the late evening.





WHAT: A strong trough and cold front will approach the state tonight. Ahead of it, strong CAPE Convective Available Potential Energy, the amount of fuel available to a developing thunderstorm, will increase to 1000-2000 j/kg, and this activity will be assisted by 30- 40k wind shear aloft. Additionally, the freezing level will be rather low to 10k feet, so any storms that get going could produce large hail. The greatest ingredients for severe weather are across the Western/Piedmont.



⚠️ THREATS: A few strong to severe storms are likely across Western NC/ Foothills and moving into the Piedmont and parts of Central NC as nightfall. This will lead to some gusty to damaging wind gusts, and some large hail is likely due to low freezing levels. An isolated tornado threat does exist west, but the threat is overall very low. As we’ve learned, we can’t say it is not completely 0, though.







👀 Bottom Line: A few strong to severe storms are likely this afternoon through tonight, especially west of Raleigh, bringing threats of damaging winds, large hail, and a low, but non-zero tornado risk. Western and Piedmont NC face the most significant risk, so stay weather-aware. If you have a garage, move your cars inside this evening for extra protection from hail. I'll pass along radar updates like normal.

 
 
 

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