SEVERE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE THURSDAY; MANY FACTORS TO IT
Well here we go again, The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 3/5 (Enhanced Risk) from Raleigh and Greensboro south and east. This threat is different from the past few events other than this Monday, where we saw nothing. Here's why we have two scenarios one is we see widespread severe weather across the state, the other is we see little to nothing across the state. Below I'm going to explain both and the types of Severe Weather we can see with each. No matter what happens, I have a strong belief that it is better to be prepared than surprised. Hope for the best prepare for the worse. Again I don't want to downplay a Severe Risk from The Storm Prediction Center; I also don't want to cause unnecessary panic when it could just as well be a rainy day.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK MAP with our graphics: Our forecast below.
WHAT: A strong storm system will push across the Deep South tomorrow (Thursday) we will have a cold front moving in from the west and a warm front moving in from the south. If you have been in North Carolina long enough, you know that could be trouble. Thursday will start off cool and rainy the models are struggling if we are able to clear by the afternoon and can the atmosphere become unstable. The NAM (which is a short-range model) has about 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE (Storm Energy), mainly south of Raleigh to the coast. Shear values are something we watch for Tornadoes 60-70kt, which is enough to see tornadoes. The HRRR another short-range model, which does pretty well with severe weather. This model has 300-700 j/kg CAPE along the NC/SC line toward the Wilmington Cape Fear area and high tornado threat south into South Carolina.
The NAM (which is likely the outlook The Storm Prediction Center has) we see showers during the morning hours the rain slowly end by afternoon and the atmosphere is able to become unstable as the warm front advances north past Raleigh and strong to severe storms develop in a line to broken line from Greensboro and Charlotte and push east in the late afternoon to evening. This scenario would be the worst-case scenario, currently forecasted by The Storm Prediction Center. Threats would be damaging winds on a more widespread base 60-70 MPH kinda like two Monday ago and a few Tornadoes. Mainly from i77 (Charlotte- Greensboro) east to the coast, which is in the level 3/5 risk Enhanced Risk. Chances of this happening are low 40%
The HRRR solution showers and periods of heavy rain occur during the morning hours and afternoon hours; the atmosphere, for the most part, remains stable and only a few isolated strong to severe storms develop across the south part of the state from southeast of Charlotte to Wilmington area. The main threat from these would be damaging winds and maybe an isolated tornado or two. Another thing to the forecast that the HRRR has is strong convection (clusters of storms strong to severe) develop over Georgia and Florida as we are in a southerly flow our moisture transport comes from the Gulf of Mexico; think of it as a water hose if you cut it in half the water does not make it all the way through the hose and it is drier. This would kill the moisture for us; thus, storms are not able to redevelop away from the southern coast as the storms moving out of South Carolina could impact that area. Chances of this happening our (moderate 60%)
WHICH ONE DO I BELIEVE: Frankly, this one is hard, but using what I've seen from past experiences areas north of Fayetteville and Charlotte will likely stable all day and just see rain and maybe a thunderstorm. Based on the latest model data the highest chance will be along the North Carolina/ South Carolina line from Charlotte south and east toward the coast. When will we know for sure which one will happen; likely first thing in the morning, that's why it is imperative that you keep checking back. For now, I'll show my graphics and threats for the areas I think I have the best chance to see severe weather. If I'm worried, then you should be too, and I am not just have a plan in place in case you need it. I think this threat will be lowered from The Storm Prediction Center will lower the threat in the morning. Any strong to severe storms would be Thursday afternoon and evening from 3 PM-11 PM. Forecasting weather is a science you take the model and knowledge to come up with the best forecast; you would rather be prepared than surprised. My forecast is based on Scenario 2.
The greatest area to see a few severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening will be from Fayetteville and Charlotte south and east, based on the latest data. All types of severe weather possible damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
DAMAGING WINDS: The main threat with any storms that become strong to severe will be damaging winds 60-70 MPH within some of the strongest storms.
TORNADO THREAT: There continues to be the risk for isolated tornadoes mainly to the south along the North Carolina South Carolina line.
Instead of being scared, be prepared! If you are prepared and always have a plan ready to be activated. You will be just fine, and don’t trust random face bag pages hyping EF5 tornadoes coming. Y’all be smart, be prepared and we will all be okay. Here’s a checklist - If you have a smartphone, be sure that WEA ( Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled on your phone. There’s no app for this, go to your settings and notifications scroll down to the bottom for iPhones: These alert you to Tornado Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings that’s it and they're very loud.
-Make sure you have a good backup app, I suggest the Red-cross App or the WRAL Weather App.
-Find your safe place, in homes, small closets, small room, the lowest floor, away from windows and outside walls. Try to be in the center of the house. Have helmets, pillows, and hard shoes In case there’s damage.
-Apartments, if you are on a higher floor, be sure you work it out with the residents on the lowest levels of the apartment complex to come to their place during Tornado Warnings. -If you live in a trailer/ mobile home/ manufactured homes. LEAVE, if a warning is issued, these are not safe. -
Please learn how to find yourself on a map, County outlines. -
Make sure you only share and follow trusted sites on social media, if it sounds like it probably is. Especially going around saying catastrophic events coming. Don’t follow facebag pages that are all panic and hype, that just share overly dramatic stuff with no details. These are things you should have in the back of your head during every severe weather event.