SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES OVERNIGHT; SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY
Potentially dangerous situation tonight into Monday for severe weather, as confidence continues to grow for significant severe weather. A vigorous spring severe weather system will bring the threat of severe weather to North Carolina tonight into Monday. A warm and humid airmass and an approaching disturbance will combine to produce widespread storms, and many of these storms could be Severe. Primary threats are damaging winds 60-70MPH, hail, a few tornadoes, and Flash Flooding Now is the time to finalize emergency plans and ensure that you have a safe place to go if/when Severe Weather threatens. Note a long discussion, but will answer everything you need to know. The threat of Severe Weather is increasing for the predawn hours of Monday into Monday afternoon. The timing of the Severe Weather particularly concerns me early morning; however, models are showing a slower system that could put a lot of the system from Charlotte east during the daytime hours (timing below) . The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2/5 risk for Severe Weather for the entire state with a level 3/5 (Enhanced Risk from areas east of Charlotte and Greensboro and southwestern NC, No, the world is not going to end. Not everyone sees Severe Weather like snow or Hurricanes, but it is the time to stay aware and have many ways for alerts. This could be a Potentially dangerous situation for folks that don't have ways to receive warnings.
1) Widespread Severe Weather is possible tonight into tomorrow across NC, many too numerous storms will be Severe. Damaging Straight-Line Winds are a good bet for everyone from i77 East, in fact, the Storm Prediction Center has placed a good portion of the state in a 30% chance range of seeing damaging winds to 60-70MPH within a 30 mile range. Damage from severe thunderstorm winds account for half of all severe reports in the lower 48 states and is more common than damage from tornadoes. Wind speeds can reach up to 100 mph and can produce a damage path extending for hundreds of miles.
2) There remains a risk for Tornadoes especially in areas that see more instability, read below for more information regarding Tornadoes
3) Flash Flooding is certainly possible where thunderstorms are training; in fact many inches of rain could fall from Sunday afternoon through early Monday before it is all set and done
4) People must have a way of hearing warnings, and that way should never, ever be a siren. Their purpose is only to reach a limited number of people outdoors. Every North Carolina home and business must have a NOAA Weather radio, properly programmed, and with a fresh battery backup. Be sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled on your phone (check notification settings)... even with no good weather app installed you will receive a tornado warning with a loud audible alert.
5) Today during the day will be dry in the morning; then we will have widespread rain moving in from west to east during the afternoon. This will not be severe could be heavy.
WHAT: A robust springtime storm system will likely produce Severe Weather across the southeast Sunday into Monday, this threat will be with us here in NC Sunday during the overnight hours into Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a level 4/5 risk for severe Weather for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The threat expands north and east across Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Risk upon us will be way different then what we have seen the past few days. One key ingredient for severe Weather is CAPE (convective available potential energy); this critical for the development of severe Weather. Models are showing 1000-1500j, which is enough for severe storms to fire the more sun we see, the more energy, no matter if we see the sun or not severe Weather is still a concern, just sun exacerbates the situation. The question for this is do we see the event during the predawn hours or does the sun come up for some especially to the east. However, another important "ingredient" is shear; the shear levels are going to be rather high for the Carolina's. Thus Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are certainly likely on the map below. A QLCS, which is a fancy name for a squiggly line of storms, will have the greatest threat for damaging winds and embedded Tornadoes. The QLCS will then pose a risk of widespread 40-55 mph winds, locally up to 65-75 mph, and a few mesovortices/tornadoes (embedded tornadoes). There still remains some significant uncertainty regarding CAPE (convective available potential energy); this important for the development of severe Weather. However, another important "ingredient" is shear; the shear levels are going to be approaching extremely high levels for the Carolina's.
Scenarios: There remains two possible scenarios, number 1 a line of showers and thunderstorms QLCS moves across the mountains and Foothills posses a threat of significant damaging winds and a few embedded Tornadoes. Once it passes Charlotte and Greensboro it splits up into cells (Supercells) across Central and Eastern NC, this would locally Enhance the tornado threat.
#2: The system remains all a line of storms QLCS and produces widespread damaging winds and a few embedded Tornadoes.
Both options are on the table; it is basically a wait and see to which one will happen.
Here's a look at the timing, let me remind you there's the chance of rain and storms likely this evening and the beginning of the overnight hours. This timing is for the worse of the conditions.
Environmental conditions ahead of the front look dangerous to say the least, with efficient enough instability (1000 - 1500 J/KG ML CAPE), dangerous model shear (Bulk: 50 to 65; SFC -> 1km: 20 - 30kts) and helicity values. Assuming at least some surface heating is allowed between the pre-frontal showers, the environment looks prime for a very active weather day across the Carolinas. A quick overview of each threat is below.
THREATS: Based on the current model analysis, all types of severe weather is expected. Damaging winds look to be the greatest threat, however, the threat for tornadoes also is possible. Models are showing discrete supercells out ahead of the main line or with the main line over / Central/Eastern NC, this trend will be monitored for Tornadoes. As always with all storms, large hail is possible too.
TORNADOES Models continue to spit out some alarming low and mid- level shear values which, if realized, would easily support the formation of a few tornadoes across Central and Eastern NC. (Long tracked strong) Still some uncertainty on favored locations at this point, likely dependent in large part to surface heating ahead of the line and the eventual strength of the line broken line with supercells would cause it to increase. For now, best Tornado values seem to be from Charlotte and Greensboro However, Tornadoes could be possible anywhere but a better chance in areas above. I’ll have a Tornado Threat number map out this evening!
DAMAGING WINDS: The threat of damaging winds to be widespread is higher than the tornado threat. strong wind energy above the surface could transfer down causing winds of 60-70MPH Be prepared for power outages.
STORM ANXIETY: I'm well aware of the concern and that many suffer from storm anxiety. And, on top of this, we are still all dealing with the current Covid-19 situation. The last thing anyone wants is another thing to worry about, but at the same time we must know the danger potential. Simply be prepared not surprised, if you have a plan ready to go we will all be fine.
Instead of being scared, be prepared! If you are prepared and always have a plan ready to be activated. You will be just fine, and don’t trust random face bag pages hyping EF5 tornadoes coming. Y’all be smart, be prepared and we will all be okay. Here’s a checklist - If you have a smartphone, be sure that WEA ( Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled on your phone. There’s no app for this, go to your settings and notifications scroll down to the bottom for iPhones: These alert you to Tornado Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings that’s it and they're very loud.
-Make sure you have a good backup app, I suggest the Red-cross App or the WRAL Weather App.
-Find your safe place, in homes, small closets, small room, the lowest floor, away from windows and outside walls. Try to be in the center of the house. Have helmets, pillows, and hard shoes In case there’s damage.
-Apartments, if you are on a higher floor, be sure you work it out with the residents on the lowest levels of the apartment complex to come to their place during Tornado Warnings. -If you live in a trailer/ mobile home/ manufactured homes. LEAVE, if a warning is issued, these are not safe. -
Please learn how to find yourself on a map, County outlines. -
Make sure you only share and follow trusted sites on social media, if it sounds like it probably is. Especially going around saying catastrophic events coming. Don’t follow facebag pages that are all panic and hype, that just share overly dramatic stuff with no details. These are things you should have in the back of your head during every severe weather event.
WILL THIS BE LIKE THIS EVENT? No, all events are different and have different characteristics.
WHAT CAN WE DO NOW? Right now, you can make sure you have a way to receive warnings that will wake you up. Please make sure you know how to find your county on a map; I'll post the NC county map above. Also you can prepare your property for high winds.
WHAT TO DO: Don't freak out I got you covered! Please stay tuned for updates as things and will change, 24/7 updates throughout the storms will occur on North Carolina's Weather Authority. I am closely monitoring the situation, make sure you have many ways to receive severe weather alerts on tonight into Monday. It is imperative that you keep checking for updates today and tonight, share to friends and family. Questions please message on the Facebook page not on the website! Also please do not rely on Facebook for warnings, Facebook is great for preparing, but no so much during the event, I will have a Facebook live, but watching tv is your best bet. Also have many ways to get warnings that will wake you up.
CALL TO ACTION: People must have a way of hearing warnings, and that way should never, ever be a siren. Their purpose is only to reach a limited number of people outdoors. Every North Carolina home and business must have a NOAA Weather radio, properly programmed and with a fresh battery backup. Be sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled on your phone (check notification settings)... even with no good weather app installed you will receive a tornado warning with a loud audible alert.
If you live in a manufactured home, you have to GET OUT if a tornado warning is issued. Have a shelter identified, or other place identified that is open when you are at risk. Know how to get there quickly.
Another full update in this evening, Stay tuned for a time regarding a Facebook Live; sometime today.