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SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NC THURSDAY DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES

Another strong cold front will bring the risk of Severe Weather on Halloween (Thursday). The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 2/5 risk from I95 west into the mountains and a 1/5 for areas along the coast. A warm and humid airmass and an approaching disturbance will combine to produce widespread storms, and some of these storms could be severe.


WHAT: An approaching Cold Front from the west will bring the chance of thunderstorms, in fact, The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of Central/Foothills and mountains NC in a level 2/5 for severe weather. One key ingredient for severe weather is CAPE (convective available potential energy) this important for the development of severe weather. Models are showing 1000-1500 which is enough for severe storms to fire. However, another important "ingredient" is shear, the shear levels are going to be rather high for the Carolina's. Thus Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are certainly likely in the area circled on the map below. A QLCS, which is a fancy name for a squiggly line of storms, will have the greatest threat for damaging winds and embedded Tornadoes. The QLCS will then pose a risk of widespread 40-55 mph winds, locally up to 65-75 mph, and a few mesovortices/tornadoes (embedded tornadoes).


Models are showing the atmosphere has the potential for discrete supercells out ahead of the mainline over the Foothills/Central NC (circled area on the map) NC, this trend will be monitored for Tornadoes. However, something that could be in place today that might cause storms to struggle to develop is a CAP, The cap is a shallow layer of warm air above the surface in the atmosphere. This is also called an inversion. As energy-rich, warm, damp air rises, it may stop rising if it reaches this layer where it is no longer warmer. Just like a hot air balloon goes up when the balloon is warmer than the surrounding air, the same is true for warm, damp air. The CAP must be broken, think of a pressure cooker. When the cap is relatively weak and plenty of moisture-rich warm air is rising, it will begin to build up at this cap, which is also sometimes called a lid. Today models are split on how strong the cap is and if the storms can break, so that's the main question. The longer and stronger the cap is the less amount of thunderstorms will develop.


THREATS: The main mode of Severe Weather Thursday will be damaging winds, however, While winds through the lowest 3 km will remain modest, vertical shear through a deeper layer with winds up to 30-40 kt at 500 mb will support wind profiles at least marginally sufficient for mid-level updraft rotation thus a few embedded tornadoes possible in some storms, but multicellular convection will probably be the dominant mode as storms consolidate into lines and clusters. Strong to damaging wind gusts should be the primary The timing of these storms will be from mid-afternoon to the late afternoon for the mountains and Piedmont (Greensboro west) Central NC will be after 8 PM-11 PM, the threat is very low for eastern/coast NC due to the timing. This very problematic for the mountains/foothills/Charlotte/Greensboro areas for Trick or Treat.




Here's a look at what the radar might look like Thursday around 6PM do not take this literally; just a projection.


Here's a look at what the radar might look like Thursday around 8PM do not take this literally; just a projection.

Here's a look at what the radar might look like Thursday around 11PM do not take this literally; just a projection.

Don't freak out I got you covered! Please stay tuned for updates as things and will change, 24/7 updates throughout the storms will occur on North Carolina's Weather Authority. I am closely monitoring the situation, make sure you have many ways to receive severe weather alerts. Remember, severe weather is isolated it does not mean everyone will see damage only a small portion of the population Questions please message on the Facebook page not on the website!

SEVERE WEATHER TEXT ALERTS

I want to remind you with severe weather and hurricane seasons coming up, to sign up for our FREE text alert service! Texts reach you when you have little cell service and you don't have to download anything and take up storage. This is not automated - I am constantly monitoring warnings. That is our priority: your safety. You will only receive alerts for the counties in which you subscribe to. You are welcome to signup/subscribe to as many counties as you wish to and can unsubscribe at any time.

To sign up you will still need to make sure your text (in your cell phone text messages) the EXACT spelling of the capitalized word on the list BELOW to 84483 to sign up for that county.

I have added 100 NC counties out of 100 counties, As always all warnings and watches will be posted on FB for all 100 counties.

(this is exactly how you have to text your county in your cell phone text messages to 84483 to sign up). ALAMANCECOWX ALEXANDERCOWX ALLEGHANYCOWX ANSONCOWX ASHECOWX AVERYCOWX BEAUFORTCOWX BERTIECOWX BLADENCOWX BRUNSWICKCOWX BUNCOMBECOWX BURKECOWX CABARRUSCOWX CALDWELLCOWX CAMDENCOWX CARTERETCOWX CASWELLCOWX CATAWBACOWX CHATHAMCOWX CHEROKEECOWX CHOWANCOWX CLAYCOWX CLEVELANDCOWX COLUMBUSCOWX CRAVENCOWX CUMBERLANDCOWX CURRITUCKCOWX DARECOWX DAVIDSONCOWX DAVIECOWX DUPLINCOWX DURHAMCOWX EDGECOMBECOWX FORSYTHCOWX FRANKLINCOWX GASTONCOWX GATESCOWX GRAHAMCOWX GRANVILLECOWX GREENECOWX GUILFORDCOWX HALIFAXCOWX HARNETTCOWX HAYWOODCOWX HENDERSONCOWX HERTFORDCOWX HOKECOWX HYDECOWX IREDELLCOWX JACKSONCOWX JOHNSTONCOWX JONESCOWX LEECOWX LENOIRCOWX LINCOLNCOWX MACONCOWX MADISONCOWX MARTINCOWX MCDOWELLCOWX MECKLENBURGCOWX MITCHELLCOWX MONTGOMERYCOWX MOORECOWX NASHCOWX NEWHANOVERCOWX NORTHAMPTONCOWX ONSLOWCOWX ORANGECOWX PAMLICOCOWX PASQUOTANKCOWX PENDERCOWX PERQUIMANSCOWX PERSONCOWX PITTCOWX POLKCOWX RANDOLPHCOWX RICHMONDCOWX ROBESONCOWX ROCKINGHAMCOWX ROWANCOWX RUTHERFORDCOWX SAMPSONCOWX SCOTLANDCOWX STANLYCOWX STOKESCOWX SURRYCOWX SWAINCOWX TRANSYLVANIACOWX TYRRELLCOWX UNIONCOWX VANCECOWX WAKECOWX WARRENCOWX WASHINGTONCOWX WATAUGACOWX WAYNECOWX WILKESCOWX WILSONCOWX YADKINCOWX YANCEYCOWX

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