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Risk of Strong to Severe Storms across the state on Friday.
⛈️ Friday Severe Weather Update: I've received numerous questions regarding the Severe Weather threat on Friday across the state. People have been worried about this for several days. As we all know, I prefer to approach these events slowly and process them with caution, presenting the weather as it is. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of North Carolina under a level 2/5 risk of Severe Weather for Friday afternoon and evening as an approaching cold front pushes east. I am expecting a line to broken line of showers and thunderstorms to move east, but severe weather is not a complete slam dunk.
📌WHAT: A strong cold front will push east into North Carolina on Friday, and ahead of the frontal system, a line of showers and thunderstorms should try to develop. There are some questions that need to be worked out, and we can expect to see some leftover rain and drizzle clouds in the morning, which will limit the severe weather threat. This is a possibility, but some models also show we wil clear out into a partly sunny sky which will allow for CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy is the amount of fuel available to a developing thunderstorm to increase to 1,500-2,000 j/kg which is more than enough for some strong to severe storms along with some wind shear.
⚠️Threats: Based on the data and my experience with this type of setup, I am thinking we will have a line to broken line of showers and thunderstorms to push east across North Carolina. A couple of strong to severe storms will be present along the line, with gusty to damaging winds and some hail being the main threats. However, with some boundaries around and some wind shear, I can't rule out an isolated tornado threat, mainly at any point, but overall the tornado threat is not that high.
➡️Timing: The line of showers and thunderstorms will push east through the mountains late morning into early afternoon and then across Central and Eastern NC afternoon through late evening east. I do expect everything to be gone before it gets too late on Friday evening. I think storms will be more of a line, so a quick-hitting event for each location, and then done. However, a couple of storms could develop out ahead of the line on Friday.
😎The Bottom Line: The severe weather threat is slightly higher on Friday than it has been recently, but I still don't think it'll be a completely widespread amount of severe weather at this point. We will need to stay aware of some strong to severe storms that move through on Friday; there is no reason to panic. The severe weather threat could still bust, so what I say we will check back in the morning to see how it is. I'm just here to share my thoughts with you, don't panic - we'll be just fine! I'll have more information over the next 12-18 hours and will probably do a video or two tomorrow morning to discuss further.
-Ethan
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