Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Potential Winter Weather Impacts on Sunday. Complicated setup across the state.

Ethan Clark

Jan 15

3 min read

WINTER WEATHER UPDATE FOR SUNDAY: Hey everyone, I know everyone is very interested in the forecast for Sunday here's my latest thoughts on the situation. The forecast is the dreaded word, complicated and highly complex. I'll try to walk you through everything now, hopefully this gives you a better idea of the thinking. There is the potential of snow and rain on Sunday across the state, but who sees what snow, rain, and or nothing is all over the place.

-It'll be very cold today and tomorrow before some warming occurs on Saturday.

The Setup: We will have a cold front approaching the state on Sunday along with an upper-level trough to the north, and a developing low-pressure system along the coast. How these all comes together will be key. Yesterday and the day before, it was the thinking that we would have plenty of cold air in place, but models have trended warmer. Why? Well, the cold front is slowing down, and we don't have a parent high pressure to our North driving down cold air into the state with a classic winter storm setup. So this already screams a mess, and I don't see significant snow amounts from this setup, with lots of disappointment for snow lovers. Another factor limiting snowfall is that it'll fall during the daytime, so melting will occur, which will also reduce snowfall amounts. Something we will have to factor in once we get closer. The system is going to have to pretty much thread the needle to produce snow across parts of the state.

What do I think will happen? Well, you're in luck, I've created some of my favorite scenario maps to explain it. I really think this is the best way to present the data, given the complicated setup.

Scenario 1: The low pressure is a little stronger and closer to the coast, thus more moisture is thrown inland. The stronger low would result in overrunning precipitation across the state. Warmer air across parts of Central and Eastern NC would be mostly an all-plain rain event. Central areas would be on the rain/snow battleground line with small shifts between the low placement changing between rain/snow. Foothills and Western North Carolina would see some light snow amounts. Questions how far west the moisture moves on this. Regardless, I don't think much snow really falls.

2️⃣Scenario 2 :The low-pressure moves across Eastern NC draws warm air far inland. This would lead to all plain rain for Central and Eastern NC, with some limited rain/snow across the Foothills and Mountains, and some snow accumulation possible.

3️⃣Scenario 3 : The low-pressure system is weak and very limited mosiure some rain and even some snow would be possible along the coast, but it could end up far enough from the coast for nothing.

😎 The Bottom Line this is a very complex and complicated setup, all models have mostly different soluations so I am giving each scenario mostly equal chances. The forecast is not a slam dunk: people throwing out there are high chance of snow across a wide part of the state. Have no idea. Hopefully, over the next 24-48 hours, models start to better align and we can have a forecast with better confidence. Forecasting weather is a science, and I believe in being transparent and telling you how I see it exactly. There is no reason to raid the grocery store or panic. Even if we do see some snow, I don't see it being a major winter storm at this point; no one will be stuck at home for days. There could be some limited impacts from Sunday into Monday at the very worst in spots.

I am watching the data and using my experience for over a decade of weather forecasting in NC, and will have updates over the next few days as normal. I hope this helps.

-Ethan