Potential Winter Weather Impacts on Sunday. Complicated setup across the state.

WINTER WEATHER UPDATE FOR SUNDAY: Hey everyone, I know everyone is very interested in the forecast for Sunday here's my latest thoughts on the situation. The forecast is the dreaded word, complicated and highly complex. I'll try to walk you through everything now, hopefully this gives you a better idea of the thinking. There is the potential of snow and rain on Sunday across the state, but who sees what snow, rain, and or nothing is all over the place.

-It'll be very cold today and tomorrow before some warming occurs on Saturday.

The Setup: We will have a cold front approaching the state on Sunday along with an upper-level trough to the north, and a developing low-pressure system along the coast. How these all comes together will be key. Yesterday and the day before, it was the thinking that we would have plenty of cold air in place, but models have trended warmer. Why? Well, the cold front is slowing down, and we don't have a parent high pressure to our North driving down cold air into the state with a classic winter storm setup. So this already screams a mess, and I don't see significant snow amounts from this setup, with lots of disappointment for snow lovers. Another factor limiting snowfall is that it'll fall during the daytime, so melting will occur, which will also reduce snowfall amounts. Something we will have to factor in once we get closer. The system is going to have to pretty much thread the needle to produce snow across parts of the state.

What do I think will happen? Well, you're in luck, I've created some of my favorite scenario maps to explain it. I really think this is the best way to present the data, given the complicated setup.

Scenario 1: The low pressure is a little stronger and closer to the coast, thus more moisture is thrown inland. The stronger low would result in overrunning precipitation across the state. Warmer air across parts of Central and Eastern NC would be mostly an all-plain rain event. Central areas would be on the rain/snow battleground line with small shifts between the low placement changing between rain/snow. Foothills and Western North Carolina would see some light snow amounts. Questions how far west the moisture moves on this. Regardless, I don't think much snow really falls.

2️⃣Scenario 2 :The low-pressure moves across Eastern NC draws warm air far inland. This would lead to all plain rain for Central and Eastern NC, with some limited rain/snow across the Foothills and Mountains, and some snow accumulation possible.

3️⃣Scenario 3 : The low-pressure system is weak and very limited mosiure some rain and even some snow would be possible along the coast, but it could end up far enough from the coast for nothing.

😎 The Bottom Line this is a very complex and complicated setup, all models have mostly different soluations so I am giving each scenario mostly equal chances. The forecast is not a slam dunk: people throwing out there are high chance of snow across a wide part of the state. Have no idea. Hopefully, over the next 24-48 hours, models start to better align and we can have a forecast with better confidence. Forecasting weather is a science, and I believe in being transparent and telling you how I see it exactly. There is no reason to raid the grocery store or panic. Even if we do see some snow, I don't see it being a major winter storm at this point; no one will be stuck at home for days. There could be some limited impacts from Sunday into Monday at the very worst in spots.

I am watching the data and using my experience for over a decade of weather forecasting in NC, and will have updates over the next few days as normal. I hope this helps.

-Ethan