Potential Winter Storm Update/Thoughts: Well, I guess it’s time for me to finally mention the potential for a Winter Storm from Friday afternoon into Saturday that will likely impact the state. It’s been several years since we’ve had a significant, impactful Winter Storm in North Carolina, and this one could be notable for parts of the state.
As usual, it’s not easy to get snow in North Carolina outside of the immediate mountains; a lot of factors have to come together to make it happen. True to form, Winter Weather events in North Carolina are always a complete mess, and this storm will likely be no different.
Don’t go raiding the grocery store for bread or milk—I have no clue why people always buy those for winter storms, lol. I’ll walk you through my thoughts below. I hate to break it to you, but I’m not releasing accumulation maps yet. The forecast will change many times between now and Friday. Hopefully, within the next 24-36 hours, I’ll have my first "call" forecast map ready.
👀 WHAT
-As I’m sure many of y’all are aware, I’m very careful about sharing information and want to keep it as accurate as possible. I don’t believe in fluff, hype, or clicks. I’m just here to help you and save lives.
-Confidence is increasing that a classic Miller A low-pressure system will move along the Gulf Coast into the southeastern United States Thursday night into Friday, bringing winter weather to parts of the state.
-Sorry, Coastal and parts of Eastern NC—this storm does not look very favorable for you at this point. For Central and Western NC, however, the odds of an impactful Winter Storm are increasing, though it’s not a slam dunk.
-I love forecasting all types of weather, especially Winter Weather, because you learn something new every day. Trends in weather forecasting are key, and that’s what I’ve been focusing on today.
THE SETUP
-A classic Miller A low-pressure system should be positioned off the southeastern United States Thursday into Friday morning, spreading moisture northward. There are two main scenarios I see right now, which I’ll explain below. As with most Winter Weather events, expect changes until the event begins. North Carolina is notorious for epic fails in Winter Weather forecasting.
Image 1: This shows the tracks of the low-pressure system, which will be located across the Deep South on Friday morning. It will ride up the coast on Friday into Saturday, likely bringing Winter Weather impacts to parts of the state. The exact track of the low-pressure system will determine where the rain/snow/ice lines set up across the state. Some areas may see only snow, others just rain, and others a battleground between them.
-The classic "warm nose" will be in full play this time. A warm nose is an area of warm air aloft that melts snow. As snow falls through it, it may turn to rain or refreeze into sleet. If the warm nose is right at the ground but surface temperatures are below freezing, we’ll see freezing rain. Where this setup occurs will be critical, likely somewhere over Central North Carolina.
Scenario A (More Likely)
-The center of the low rides across Eastern NC.
-There could be a brief period of snow across Eastern NC before most areas transition to plain cold rain, with little to no impact.
-Central NC becomes a "battleground" (pink area) with periods of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and even some plain rain mixing in—resulting in a messy, icy situation.
-Western NC (blue area) will likely see mostly snow, though some sleet could mix in. I’m especially concerned about snow accumulating on power lines and causing outages, given the fragile power grid still recovering from Hurricane Helene. Make sure you have alternative sources for warmth and water in case of power outages.
Scenario B (Less Likely)
-The low shifts about 50-100 miles east, bringing the warm nose with it.
-This would move the snow, battleground, and rain zones eastward, changing the impacts for each region.
While this is still possible, most of today’s trends have pointed toward Scenario A.
WHAT TO DO NOW
There’s no reason to panic or clear out grocery stores just yet. Instead:
-Be prepared for travel impacts across parts of the state starting Friday and lasting into the weekend. Remember, even a little Winter Weather can cause problems around here.
-Avoid falling for hype and exaggerated snowfall totals. While some snow will likely fall, I don’t see aggressive totals at this point.
-As a forecaster, there’s no reason to rush and put out a forecast map only to revise it 5,000 times—that just creates confusion and erodes trust. I’ll be sharing my Snow/Ice maps over the next day or so as we get better high-resolution data and trends.
The Bottom Line
Confidence is increasing for an impactful Winter Storm for parts of the state. Some areas, especially in Central NC, haven’t seen snow or ice in over 1,000 days, and that streak could soon end. The forecast will undoubtedly change over the next 48-72 hours as the system develops.
If you have plans this weekend, be prepared for potential impacts across Central and Western NC. For snow lovers in these regions—do your snow dance! It just might work.
For now, my confidence in this event is low to medium, but we’re watching it closely as things evolve. Stay tuned for updates. I’ll keep you in the loop with trustworthy, no-nonsense information.
I love Winter Weather forecasting. I'll keep you updated!
-Ethan
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