Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 the odds of impacts directly to the Carolinas are increasing.

Tropical Update: Potential Tropical Cyclone 9, formally Invest 94L has been designated by the National Hurricane Center as of 5PM. This gives us the first official cone. I’ve spent a lot of time looking through the data today, and I thought I would provide another update as we get into the evening with the new cone. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting it to become a Hurricane near the SE United States early next week. The odds of direct impacts to the Carolinas from PTC9 are increasing; unfortunately, hopefully we trend another way, but I am becoming more concerned. We seem to be moving more slowly toward a solution, but (like watching paint dry) the pattern remains increasingly complex, so it's not a slam dunk, and there is still potential for a miss, but the trend over the last 24 hours suggests a direct hit is possible.

📌The new official National Hurricane Cone is very much in line with my forecast that I’ve been talking about here’s what they say “If the system moves on the fast side of the guidance, it will likely be more influenced by the U.S. trough that is expected to cut off. In that scenario, the disturbance would move inland over the southeast U.S. early next week. Conversely, if the system moves on the slow side of the guidance, Humberto's circulation will cause the steering currents to collapse, resulting in this system stalling near the southeast coast or drifting eastward”

📌Where is PTC9 right now? Well, it is currently tracking near the Dominican Republic/Cuba and is expected to be in the near Bahamas by later this evening, ideally. Why does this matter? Well, the mountains in the Dominican Republic reach heights of up to 10,000 feet, resulting in very erratic movements and causing models to struggle with determining the center and how to handle it. As a result, we're seeing solutions in the models everywhere until we have a center of circulation; therefore, models need to be taken with a grain of salt. However, models are becoming a little more consistent, but without a developed center, we can't be confident.

My thoughts on the track, as you can tell, the National Hurricane Center track is quite large and this is why.

So, where exactly is PTC9 going to go? Well, that is a million dollars, and I wish I could tell you with great confidence. I'll explain my thoughts.

🔴Track 1: (Worst Case Scenario) PTC9 is faster and moves into the southern Atlantic and then heads north. As a result, the upper-level low (An upper-level low will be over the Southeast United States this weekend and early next week, bringing our increased rain/storm chances). Upper-level lows are notoriously difficult to forecast; they can last longer than expected, move out faster, or be much weaker, and models struggle to predict them accurately.) Pulls the system further into the coast. Over the last 12 hours, the setup for this solution has been trending in that direction, making it more likely to happen. Some models even show it stalling somewhere near or over the Carolinas.

-This would be the worst-case scenario impacts to the Carolinas, with the tropical impacts, it could be a Hurricane or just a Tropical Storm. There are also many questions about the strength. We don't want this, but models have trended this way. How strong most models have it as a strong Tropical Storm to a low-grade hurricane. The odds of heavy rainfall and flash flooding are increasing, particularly in Central and Eastern North Carolina, as well as parts of South Carolina. We will have to watch the mountains too. Once the data gets better, there could be a risk of some heavy rainfall at some point, depending on the track no reason to panic, but definitely keep an eye out.

🟢Track 2 (Image 2) (Best Case Scenario): PTC9 is slower, and Humberto beats PTC9 North, and then the upper-level low backs off, and a closer interaction with Humberto forces the system to make an abrupt turn out to sea, falling the system out to sea. If both systems develop and get too close to each other, they will experience the Fujiwhara effect, causing them to spin around each other. Definitely, another thing is thrown in the forecast. There are still a few models that completely miss the coast, we will see if they hold up.

📌So what do I think will happen? Currently, I am leaning more towards Track 1 based on the latest data. I would give it a 60% chance happen of the storm coming along the SC/NC coast stalling near the coast, or moving in. I am not fully confident, but the odds of this are increasing. There remain some models, especially the Ai models, with a turn out to sea and no landfall, but I am not really sold on the Ai models to be honest. Maybe more models will trend that way today!

👌The National Hurricane Center says “There is an increasing threat of heavy rainfall early next week from coastal Georgia through the Carolinas and into the southern Mid-Atlantic states, which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding.

The system is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it approaches the southeast U.S. coast early next week, where there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Residents in that area should monitor updates to the forecast and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.”

😎The Bottom Line: The risk of direct impacts to Carolinas continues to increase, and we could start to see impacts as soon as Monday night into Tuesday, but there remains considerable uncertainty. So don’t take the models literally, we can’t pinpoint how much rain/wind/surge people will see, but the odds of heavy rainfall and Flash Flooding threat is increasing for parts of the Carolinas. I am hoping tomorrow as we get a center we should have better confidence in the models and we could start going more deep in potential location-specific impacts. So what you should do now is just have a Hurricane plan in place and go on with your life, don't cancel beach plans. However, now would be a good time to review your plans in case you do need to cancel plans. That's why I have us in the KNOW! The risk of impacts is increasing, but still not fully! As of today, I am more concerned about PTC9, especially the Coastal areas and parts of Central areas of the Carolinas. We need to watch it closely because once we are certain, there will be a limited time when we could see impacts as early as Monday/Tuesday, if it affects us. Forecasting the weather is a science, and nothing is certain this far in advance, especially with a highly complex setup. Watch out for hype and scary models being floated around; many of those will never happen. I'll keep you updated and tell you what I think in a down-to-earth manner.

-Ethan