Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED; POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY SUNDAY

ncwxauthority
Jul 18, 2020
2 min read

High Pressure will continue to build in over North Carolina leading to another round of heat and high dew-points with likely the hottest temperature so far this season. Heat index values will likely be the highest they’ve been all summer long, due to an increased of dew-point values it will make the heat index values 100-107° outside of the mountains with the highest values across Central and Eastern NC where a Heat Advisory has been issued for Sunday.

Sunday:

The upper-level ridge will remain strong over the state, leading to partly to mostly sunny skies with hot temperatures. Highs will once again be in the low-mid 90s outside of the mountains with heat index values 100-107° if your working outside, please be careful. Leftover boundaries from last night storms and high CAPE values will allow for more scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly after 1 PM. Any storms that do develop will have gusty winds, possible microbursts, and heavy rainfall. A surface trough is located across the north, we will watch for thunderstorm develop across the Foothills first and push east toward the mid-afternoon, coverage will be about 30-40% of the state. One or two storms could be severe with microbursts. "A microburst is a localized column of sinking air (downdraft) within a thunderstorm and is usually less than or equal to 2.5 miles in diameter. Microbursts can cause extensive damage at the surface, and in some instances, can be life-threatening. per the definition NWS."

HEAT INDEX VALUES

Potentially dangerous heat index values likely Sunday afternoon 100-107° outside of the mountains. The highest values will be from 12 PM-7 PM Sunday afternoon, the only relief will be if you have a thunderstorm move through your area.

The National Weather Service has issued a Heat Advisory for all of Central and Northeast North Carolina from 12 PM Sunday until 9 PM. Heat Index Values 105-107° for areas in Orange. The following counties included are Rockingham-Caswell-Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck

From the NWS

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heatstroke. Wear lightweight and loose-fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air-conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heatstroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.