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Another active day ahead for our Sunday!

Ethan Clark

July 19, 2026 at 2:38:16 PM

⛈️ Storm Update: Here we go again, another active afternoon and evening is expected across parts of the state. A cold front will approach the region from the north later today. This, along with increasing CAPE (Convective available potential energy) to over 2,000 J/kg, will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms developing.


We should have an unstable lapse rate, meaning the rate at which atmospheric temperature decreases with increasing altitude, this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and downbursts would be the main threat; a couple of storms could be strong to severe across the state.


As with the last few days, not everyone will see storms, but the ones that do develop will be strong to severe with gusty to damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and lots of lightning being the main threats.


The timing will be mainly after lunch into the late evening. I've attached the future radar. Don't take it literally; it just gives you an idea of the scattered storms in nature. I'll pass along updates.






-Ethan

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Forecast Monday November 4th.

It's a new day across the state, and the weather will change some today. Happy Monday, North Carolina! Looking over the state this morning, we have a high-pressure positioned to our north that will result in a CAD-like setup. For those who are new to this Cold Air Damming (CAD), often referred to as "the wedge, It occurs when a high-pressure system to the north directs cold, dense air southward along the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains. This cool air becomes trapped against the mountains, creating a wedge-shaped mass that can lead to prolonged periods of cloudy, cool, and damp conditions in the region. We will see somewhat of a wedge today; it typically occurs mainly from Raleigh west. Eastern and Coastal NC usually break out of CADs quickly. Highs today will be tricky depending on how strong the CAD is; I am going with the 50s and 60s from Raleigh West today with 70s east. How fast the CAD breaks will impact how quickly temps warm up from Raleigh west. Models do a horrible job with this, so I've undercut most temps at least 5° Raleigh and points west.

Today, a few scattered showers are possible across the mountains and an isolated shower elsewhere. However, nothing too heavy is expected or widespread. We can expect partly to mostly cloudy skies today with more sunshine east.


-Ethan

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