Growing concern for a coastal low that could bring significant impacts to parts of the coast. Everything you need to know.

COASTAL LOW UPDATE: Confidence is increasing that a Coastal Low will impact parts of North Carolina, especially the coast, this weekend. Here is my latest update and thought.

The odds of significant impacts (especially from Coastal Flooding Storm Surge) along parts of the Outer Banks are increasing, with other parts of the coast still up for debate.

📌A cold front will pass through the state on Wednesday that could bring some showers and maybe a thunderstorm. Thursday and Friday will be much cooler across the state, with highs in the 60s and 70s for most areas. That same cold front will stall off the coast, and an area of low pressure could develop along the front, setting the stage for a long-duration coastal low. Exactly where the low travels is still up for debate, but there is a significant risk of coastal flooding along the Outer Banks (especially south of Oregon Inlet) at this point.

📌 Would it be tropical in nature? It could be, but this setup favors more of a subtropical low or just a generic coastal low/nor'easter setup. Regardless of whether named or not, it will likely have the same impact on parts of North Carolina and the greater Eastern Seaboard.

📌 Graphic 1 Outer Banks (Coastal Flood Watch issued) A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service starting Thursday morning through Monday morning for all of the Outer Banks south of Oregon Inlet (Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands) NE Winds will start to pick on Thursday and continue to increase through the weekend moderate to major impacts are possible along the Outer Banks from Coastal Flooding.

Looking at the latest data, the most concerning time for Coastal Flooding will be Thursday into Monday night during high tides and with the greatest risk along the Outer Banks, especially Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. East and South Facing Beaches will be the most concerned. If you're on Ocracoke and Hatteras Island and need to leave I would leave before the weekend because travel along Highway 12 could be quite hard Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, especially in the prone areas of Ocracoke, Hatteras, Buxton, Avon, Rodanthe, Waves, and Oregon Inlet. Basically, Oregon Inlet south has the greatest risk in my opinion. This is the expected to be a prolonged event starting Thursday-Monday morning. Ferries will likely be impacted on the Outer Banks.

The National Weather Service says: "Up to 2 to 4 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in some areas near shorelines and tidal waterways resulting in an elevated threat of property damage around the times of high tide. Flooding will extend inland from the waterfront threatening some homes and businesses. Numerous road closures and flooding of vehicles will be possible, most notably along NC 12 where ocean overwash may make several portions of the highway inaccessible across Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands."

📌We could see greater impacts based on how the coastal low sets up: Would it be tropical in nature? It could be, but this setup favors more of a subtropical low or just a generic coastal low/nor'easter setup. Regardless of whether named or not, it will likely have the same impact on parts of North Carolina and the greater Eastern Seaboard.

🔴Graphic 2 (Worst Case Track Scenario 1) Thursday and Friday will just be gusty winds and Coastal Flooding risk mainly along the Outer Banks impacts discussed above, but there could be some minor sounside flooding and King Tide related flooding outside of the Outer Banks.

- The cold front stalls off the coast, and the coastal low starts to develop along the coast. It rides along the coast and brings the greatest impacts to the North Carolina coast, some impacts could spread inland to Central NC.

-This would bring the greatest impacts: high surf, significant risk of coastal flooding (greatest along the Outer Banks but some coastal flooding is possible elsewhere), gusty winds, and heavy rainfall along the coast. This track would bring some rain/winds inland to central NC, but nothing crazy. Early models show 45-60MPH wind gusts along the coast on this track, but there is still some uncertainty.

-We would be facing Tropical Storm Conditions up and down the coastline, but it would likely not be named; but regardless, named or not, impacts would be similar to a Tropical Storm.

🟢: Graphic 3 (This would be the better-case scenario). Hurricane Jerry helps pull the low pressure further offshore, but we would still see a risk of Coastal Flooding, especially along the Outer Banks, and some gusty winds, but a lower risk of heavy rainfall as most would be offshore.

So what do I think will happen? Based on the latest case, I would say a 60% chance that the worst-case scenario happens, but how strong and how close the storm gets to the coast is still up for debate. The vast majority of the rain/wind impacts will be across Eastern/Coastal NC, but some rain could work inland across Central NC on Sunday. Over the next 24-48 hours, we should be able to better nail down the exact impacts.

😎 The Bottom Line: This will be something to keep an eye on over the next few days. We will see how strong it gets, but if you're along the coast, be prepared for potentially some bumpy weather this weekend. There is a growing risk of significant Coastal Flooding (Storm Surge) risk along the southern Outer Banks, with potential for some other coastal flooding in spots. However, as of today, I am quite concerned about the southern Outer Banks and am watching other areas for now.

-If you have plans for the Mountains and further west into North Carolina, it looks like a beautiful fall weekend regardless of what the low does.

-For Eastern/Coastal NC: I'll be monitoring the trends in the models over the coming days and let you know more as the data comes in and we start being able to nail down potential impacts. As of now, it does not look like a very nice weekend along the coast, but that can still change since we have about 48-84 hours to go.

-Ethan