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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

COULD SOME PARTS OF NC SEE WINTER WEATHER

A busy weather week is ahead for NC from winter weather to flash flooding, this article will cover the winter weather side. It is a cold and rainy Sunday across NC today, with even heavier rain coming later tonight.


WHAT: A complex low pressure system will approach from the southwest on Tuesday, with precip spreading into the state on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Models have trended colder with low-level thermal profiles across the Piedmont and western NC on

Tuesday evening/night. In fact, we may see a period of rain/mixed with snow across the Piedmont, foothills, and mountains Tuesday night. However, little impacts are expected at this time, with temps expected to remain just above freezing during this time frame. The only reason I am even mentioning the potential for winter weather on Wednesday morning is that the models due to extremely bad forecasting CAD events. Also known as cold air damming when cold air backs up against the mountains and gets trapped in the Piedmont and Foothills. Warm along the coast begins erodes in on the cold air, but because cold air is so dense it takes a long time. The warm does eventually make its way from southeast to northeast, thus during winter events, the models forecast it extremely poorly. At this point, still not expecting anything more than a nuisance event early Wednesday in areas in Pink on the map below.

A widespread winter storm is not expected at this time, Stay tuned for more updates! Due to message problems on the website please message on the Facebook Page North Carolina's Weather Authority. This is a very complex system, with CAD events models do very horribly forecasting such thing. 1-2 degrees in temperatures on Wednesday make all the difference, also we could end up seeing nothing. Heavy rainfall is a bigger concern stay tuned for an update regarding that.

 
 
 

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